• in an escalation of the past two plus years, CTV and TSN are ramping up their Olympic rhetoric and Believe campaign with local affiliates now in the fray.  Even more disgusting is the Buy Own the Podium campaign.  Wasn’t the Olympic movement based on amateur athletic achievement, not who could buy the most medals?  More on the Olympic sellout perhaps in a later post.
• the effort of Pepsi to push their stupid, contrived Canada chant at the World Junior Hockey Championships in a run up to the Olympics.  What is wrong with Go Canada Go?  Their contest was flawed in its entirety since Canada already had chants, much like those of the other countries mentioned.  Pure marketing for web page views and to sell some more Pepsi.  Drowning out natural chants of Go Canada Go is wrong.  It is time people quit falling for gimmicks to create chants for companies and getting their name in the HHOF.  Thankfully their attempt for this to go viral via youtube, facebook, twitter, etc. so it can be spontaneous at the Olympics doesn’t appear to be working.
• overpaid hockey players who want to go out and live the high life, but don’t want to pay the bill, whether it is a few thousand dollar bar tab or a few bucks for a cab.
• reading books about the old days when athletes got paid a good wage, had some fun times, but played for the love of the game and a desire to win.  Despite the lip service today’s professional athletes pay to that if asked, I would guess the majority wouldn’t be playing if salaries were a fraction of what they are.  This will eventually hurt the million dollar salary leagues as fan loyalty to the home team requires some people you want to cheer for.

There are more, but I’ve forgotten them already.

Maybe it is me, maybe it is the result of growing older.  I’m not a kid anymore and I see a lot more of the behind-the-scenes ugly aspects of the league.  Kids today see the same thing as I, so their jaded viewpoint may protect them in the future from having the same change of heart.

The waves of expansion started it all.  Nine teams added in 10 years, only one in Canada.  Four other teams relocated, two from Canada to the US.  Many of the new US franchises provided only better arenas and deep-pocketed owners; actual fans in the building or watching on TV did not materialize or waned after the initial shine wore off.  As many as six expansion franchises and 3 or 4 other US franchises have substantial attendance problems.  According to the NHL, all is good with their business.  In fact, the last 10 years the NHL has lost any ground in gained in the 1990′s in the US.

The past few months have been focused on the bankruptcy of the Phoenix Coyotes and the attempted purchase and relocation of the team to Hamilton by Jim Basillie.  First the NHL took the position that the franchise was not bankrupt, despite the league providing assistance to keep the bills paid this past season.  After the bankruptcy was confirmed the NHL has insisted that the team has a future in Phoenix.  Unwilling to admit to any failure the league has attempted to put a positive spin on their situation and yet it has had no effect anywhere in saving face for the league.  They kind of operation the NHL has allowed in supporting franchises, special deals for owners, and loans between owners would generate the term bush-league anywhere else yet the hockey media is very easy on the league, likely due to the vindictive nature the league would have against anyone who lashed out at it.

The utter refusal of the NHL to consider a franchise move to Canada is amazingly hard to understand.  Ignoring the spin of the league, theories are that the NHL does not want a franchise in Hamilton as it has no drawing power in the US or wishes to put its own expansion franchise in Toronto for a $400 to $500 million fee.  Additional expansion!  They need to contract first.  Only the NFL has more than 30 teams, and it is the most popular sport (in terms of viewership and playing talent) in North America.  There just isn’t enough hockey players to supply the 30 teams that exist now.  As for the drawing power of Hamilton (or Winnipeg or Quebec City for that matter), they have a team in Columbus, Ohio.  Columbus, though the 32nd largest metropolitan area in the US, hardly is a draw in New York or Los Angeles.  For a league with as much trouble as it has, having well attended games anywhere should be a priority, not attempting to place franchises in the largest TV markets.

Additional teams in the south has led to a deteriorating product because of the ice conditions.  The NHL considers this a non-issue, as both teams play on the same ice, and it is consistently bad through most if not almost all the league.  Ignoring the playing surface which directly impacts the level of play is maddening to this fan.  Would the NBA say their courts were fine as both teams play on the same one if the floor was warped and damaged?  Would the NFL say there was no impact to play if all fields were four inches of muddy soup?  But the NHL has to ignore this fact because its only purpose is to make money and it has used expansion to large, warm US markets as its strategy to do so.

The game has suffered.  Increased coverage has not helped the quality of information.  In Canada we are left with a legacy of hours and hours of endless hockey drivel on television and sports radio.  Nothing new is said, the same cliches are spoken over and over and topics rehashed until you just want to never hear about them again.  Their are fewer and fewer characters in the game, and the number of anonymous interchangeable parts on each team increased each year it seems.  Coverage for the sake of filling in hours has taken away the desire for more; now my desire is to shut it off.  Couple that with a season that is too long (a winter sport that is effectively 10 months long!) and the overdose continues.

Hockey, and therefore the NHL as the pinnacle of the profession, is driven in Canada by a national pride associated with our unofficial pass time.  No one stops to question it in the midst of the male bonding and civic pride.  I think the support of the NHL has become more about those factors, along with the prestige of attending/watching an event outside of the normal working man’s realm rather than about getting to see the most skilled hockey players in the world, to see some real talent and be there when something special and memorable happens.  That is what I thought sports was about, but for so many that is secondary to all the other attributes.

This post isn’t going to change anything.  For me the NHL will continue down the spiral.  It will still have strong support in Canada.  In the US, it may implode, there may be an abundance of franchise bankruptcies and movement in the coming years.  Even if the league contracts and expands in Canada, the same direction will be policy and not much will change.  The spiral is impossible to climb up from.  That is why it is called progress.

Sports gambling, wagering and gaming have been around for a long time and have moved into the mainstream from behind closed doors in recent decades.  However, unlike casino gambling that governments have embraced over the past 20-30 years, there is an affect on other institutions, namely the professional and amateur sport ranks.  Certainly the lessons of the Chicago Black Sox scandal, Pete Rose, Tim Donaghy, and Rick Tocchet show that gambling has a corrupting influence on sports.  While regulating it at the sports level seems like the solution, rules banning it were in place for all the above examples.

Placing the government in charge of sports gambling is a risk in itself.  Not only have they allowed $200 million in false winnings to be collected in their lottery games, but have made mistakes on their existing Pro-Line sports wagering business (I can only find this anecdotal reference to a $900,000 soccer mistake).  There is also no evidence that the government act responsibly with the billions they raise from gambling today.  Additional billions will increase the income statement for the provincial coffers, but the money will not be targeted to any specific social infrastructure area to benefit all.

Finally, there is a social cost to increased gambling.  Moral issue aside, the advent of casino gambling and VLT’s in Canada brought increased gambling addictions.  This in turn has increased the theft and fraud of businesses, charities and governments as well as personal bankruptcy.  When the government tells people to start practicing their happy dance for their sports wagering, how many more will be caught up in dreams of hitting it big?

I see that real government sports book will eventually come.  They will not resistant to ignoring a new revenue stream.  I am satisfied with small charity games and the lottery sports offerings available today.  Adding betting on individual games will only cause problems for sports and that is what is most important to me, not the side wagers.

The Super Bowl is notorious for producing less-than-entertaining games yet the hoopla and growth continue to rise.  The ability to market the day to the masses and attract viewers who have little interest in the NFL during the season is commendable from a marketing perspective.  The game has become so secondary however, and that can not be good for the sport.  A number of people asked me if I was watching the Super Bowl this year.  When I replied negatively and they positively, I inquired to their reasons since many were non-NFL fans, if not non-sports fans.  The resounding answer was the commercials.  Really, the commercials.  Now I view commercials like the flu, something to avoid.  Commercials have become despicable in their methods in manipulating people’s thoughts about what they need, which has led to some of the issues we are facing now.  Some people don’t see commercials as such (even arguing the whole economy would collapse without them) and find entertainment in them.  To spend five or six hours on a Sunday to see a few 30 second clips when they could see the highlights on the news channels or YouTube the next day if they wished seems very wasteful to me.  Surely commercials are not that high on the entertainment scale.  The entertainment value of the sport has been eclipsed by just entertainment in general (and if it is on TV, it must been entertaining!).

Many of those watching the Super Bowl on television will be there for the commercials, the half-time show, the party and the approval (I’m American, Hollywood because I watched the game all the Americans, movie stars watched!) and will have no idea about the players, the teams or even how the game is played.  It has become a sad reflection on our society, and in Canada, an example of the cultural influence of the US on us.  Interest in their football championship would be one thing, but a mass audience to be spoon fed thousands of corporate messages to buy more, need more, want more is the wrong kind of cultural influence.  I think Canadians should think about what they could do with that time and not be sheep for the sake of being sheep.  The only American approval that comes with watching their biggest game is in your mind, otherwise it does not exist.  There are other days and ways to gather with friends.  You may find other ways to connect with people without the television pumping messages at you.

The motivation beneath the hawks, which are mainly commentators who are filling a talking head role after careers as players and coaches, appears to be at least partly due to a machismo attitude ingrained into them after years in hockey circles.  Any sign of being against what has become “normal” violence in the game would be a sign they are not quite a man.

It hasn’t always been like it is today, with professional fighters who see 2-3 minutes of ice-time a game.  The old “code” was based on demanding respect.  Now it based on vengence and strategic fights for motivation.  All sports constantly evolve where players will do what ever they have to to keep their jobs.  In hockey that has resulted in the lack of respect for fellow players in the same Player’s Association.  This is largely because:

1. Players carry a weapon
2. Fighting has always been allowed (offsetting penalties with rare game misconducts)
3. Suspensions for violence have not been stiff enough (acts of extreme violence have not resulted in the end of anyone’s career)

An increase in stick violence is the number one item cited when restricting fighting and enforcer players is discussed.  The fact is over the last 20-25 years the NHL has failed to maintain a standard for stick work on the body and even recent improvements has not reset the bar.  Any increase in stick work by frustrated players could be met with an increased crackdown by officials.  The game may suffer for a period as players adjust, but there is no other way to introduce such a change.  It will not come from the feeder leagues as they all train their players to the NHL standard, the NHL must change first.  The NHLPA has always stood behind its members in the truest union sense, disapproving of anything that may eliminate the jobs of its current members with more skilled players.  Just like any union, being a member is what counts, not your skills to do the job (playing hockey in this case).  (I am not anti-union, this is just one of the aspects of unions that I could do without).

There are a lot of options that can be tried before automatically kicking out players who fight and suspending them will come into play.  Maybe roster sizes need to be reduced to eliminate those players on the end of the bench waiting for their next bout.  I would certainly support a reduction in teams to strengthen the talent pool.  Hockey Canada penalizing fighting like any other league with ejection from the game in all leagues below the professionals would be a huge start.  Any rule about players maintaining helmets will do nothing to reduce fighting, but the hawks are still opposed to it.  If there is no helmet rule there should be a waiver every player must sign each season stating the NHL, member clubs and other players and officials involved will not be responsible for any act of fighting which causes them bodily injury or death.  Despite that, the NHL and hockey in general risks a great loss in popularity if another player dies as the result of a fight.

The hawks don’t want change.  Those that don’t change soon find out that the world changes around them, leaving them behind.  The NHL is already on the way to irrelevance in the US, even with fighting selling tickets.  A reduction of Canadians getting into hockey could be the result of maintaining old rules for the sake of the hawks feeling masculine.

In Fans should be wary of Bills shuffle, Dave Perkins alerts the public over his perception of the owners-in-waiting motivations and the price for the public taxpayer while stating fan support will decide the flavour of football in Toronto. Jerry Sullivan of the Buffalo News (republished in the Toronto Star) explains why Bills fans have the right to be very worried while Garth Woolsey reports on the reaction in Buffalo. We find the Argos were less than willing partners but forced into trying to make the most out of the situation after the deal was done before they were ever informed. As details on the ticket packages are still lacking, it appears the formal announcement was meant to launch the hype with ticket package details, schedules and on-sale dates still to be determined.

From a Western perspective, Paul Friesen portrays the announcement as the CFL‘s worst nightmare. A more positive look comes from Steve Simmons in Enough fans for both CFL, NFL.

The range of issues are being covered, from the arrogance and motives of wealthy owners and oligopoly moguls to the unspoken cost to taxpayers. Most reports take the tact that either an NFL team or CFL team in Toronto will survive, and bet on the NFL team. In reality, there is nothing precluding both from being successful. While Ted Rogers and Larry Tanenbaum may now be taking a quieter approach to their long term goals to acquire a permanent NFL team for Toronto, specifically the Buffalo Bills, it is apparent that they feel they are on a clear path to that goal and only time stands in the way of that accomplishment. I believe there are a lot more hurdles to overcome both in acquiring a team and keeping it. So it is far from a certainty that these partners will every bring an NFL franchise to Toronto.

So what can someone who enjoys and supports the CFL do?

• Recognize that you can watch and enjoy both leagues if you are so inclined and that this series of games is not any reason to abandon the CFL as a dying league. The CFL will not close its doors overnight. It is a vibrant and growing league, stronger than it has been in 25-30 years.
• Support your local CFL team by attending games and support the CFL by watching the television broadcasts.
• Be vocal and passionate about the CFL. If you want to see improvements to the experience, the game or anything CFL related, let them know. If more offence, more Canadian content or local exposure is your thing, let them know. One voice may not make a difference, but a crowd of people saying the same thing is hard to ignore.

Between the lies and rumours
There’s a world of mystery

Lies and Rumours — Alannah Myles

Note: To gain a full understanding of the issues surrounding this topic, one must read as much as one can on what has been written about it. I encourage everyone to read as many of the stories linked to in this post for the greatest spectrum of coverage on this subject.

After rumours surfaced around CFL owners pursuing an NFL franchise on their own, I wrote a post asking questions that this development raised as well as a facetious take on the hype it caused. Soon after more stories broke around the Buffalo Bills scheduling to play games in Toronto, which I linked to and said I would address in my verbose fashion at a later date. Now that the plan has been officially announced by the Bills and the commentary is mostly done I provide this summary of the stories and my sober analysis of what this means for Toronto businesspersons who want to acquire an NFL franchise and for the CFL.

To summarize the (mainly) facts known to date:

• The NFL’s Buffalo Bills introduced a plan for approval by the NFL, the state and county to play games outside Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo. The plan was presented to the NFL in October 23 meetings in Philadelphia where the details revealed a regular season game at Rogers Centre in Toronto for five years starting in 2008 plus exhibition games in 2008, 2010 and 2012.
• The state approved the proposal by the Bills prior to the meeting and is expected to receive NFL and county approval by the end of the year. The move is seen by NFL owners as necessary for the Bills’ survival, not as a harbinger of a permanent move of the franchise to Toronto.
• While not determined, there seems to be a will to avoid a conflict with the CFL season by playing the regular season game in December.
• Appearances by Bills’ players in Toronto relate to their goal to expand their territory to the southern Ontario market, which is meant to better position the team to stay in Buffalo long-term, even after Ralph Wilson’s death.
• Edmonton and Vancouver have been lobbying the NFL for a regular season game as part of the NFL’s international plan, while Toronto has been lobbying to delay or block such a game.

Other notes and commentary of interest:

• Contrary to reports, the Jacksonville Jaguars are not close to being for sale or being relocated.
• Briefly noted from the NFL meetings were updates on potential new stadiums in Minneapolis, San Francisco and San Diego.
• A Toronto reporter tries to find perspective on the NFL’s potential in Canada in the heart of CFL country — Saskatchewan, but fills it with stereotypes instead.
• Doug Flutie questions the viability of an NFL franchise in Toronto, but also believes that an NFL franchise may hurt the Toronto Argonauts, forcing it out before the NFL franchise has a chance to fail.
• Reading the comments on the TSN and globesports.com articles linked in this post, you find a strong majority either discounting any possibility of the NFL surviving in Toronto or claiming their indifference to such a move. While not a scientific poll, it is interesting as ten years ago I remember such online conversations being a 50-50 split at best, with CFL supporters often being in the minority.

Unravelling the Mystery

While there have been media responses to the reaction stating the CFL should quit fearing the NFL and embrace it instead, there has been little analysis of how these events makes the city of Toronto any closer to landing an NFL franchise. A Globe and Mail’s David Naylor and Stephen Brunt two-page article tries to examine the “inevitable” arrival of the NFL in Canada, but falls short in its own bias. Occam’s razor states that when presented with multiple theories, the one that introduces the fewest assumptions should be selected. Contrary to this, the media has created a certain future how the NFL will arrive in Canada, ignoring any comments to the contrary, facts, hurdles and assumptions.

Naylor/Brunt start with some unverifiable speculation from a “secret” CFL governors meeting.

There is talk of the Toronto Argonauts trying to form a business relationship with a proposed NFL team. There is a suggestion of a spring-summer season for the CFL, which would culminate with the Grey Cup on Labour Day weekend to accommodate the NFL’s September kickoff.

We know from anonymous governor verification that there was preliminary brainstorming talk from the Toronto Argonaut owners that one way they could control the NFL’s entry into Canada would be to be become a bidder themselves. This discussion never went much farther than this, apparently, to get into the details of the structure of such an ownership group and whether they could form a group with enough capital. The media were quick to report this internal speculation, but failed to follow up and investigate the makeup and means of a Cynamon/Sokolowski ownership group and were critical of CFL governors for dismissing the plan as “preliminary”.

Now Naylor/Brunt make a statement regarding a suggestion of a spring-summer season for the CFL, with a Grey Cup on Labour Day weekend. No examination of such a statement is made. Since there is no attribution to the suggestion, it is much more likely a suggestion of the reporters themselves. Examination of the statement reveals that to hold the Grey Cup Labour Day weekend, the season is being pushed ahead three months, requiring it to start in early April and training camps and the preseason to take place in March. Obviously, this is not possible due to weather concerns, especially in Western Canada, and would likely do more to harm the CFL than an NFL franchise in Toronto as it affects all clubs. If it was spoken in a CFL governors meeting, it was in a “put all options on the table” brainstorming session. I am not saying it will not be pursued by the governors, but upon examination the plan would have to be tweaked to move the season up one month at most. Reporting such a statement as a final solution under consideration is alarmist.

Later, Naylor/Brunt speculate:

Rogers and Tanenbaum alone might have the wealth to buy an NFL team. But word has spread that the two have actively pursued additional financing, perhaps from Katz, the Edmonton drug-store magnate …

They refer to Darryl Katz as a potential third partner for the ownership group, but provide no source, anonymous or otherwise, that this is possibly the case. Katz could not be reached for comment and without an even anonymous source close to Rogers, Tanenbaum, Paul Godfrey, Katz or another individual close to their business interests this seems more like unsubstantiated rumour, which in many cases is baseless.

Naylor/Brunt go on to whitewash the NFL franchise relocation situation.

In fact, there are believed to be several teams that might be looking to move in the not-too-distant future. New Orleans, where the city is still dealing with the fallout from hurricane Katrina. Jacksonville, a small-market where ticket sales remain slow. Minnesota, where the drive for a new stadium is stalled. And Buffalo, where Wilson has been telling everyone for some time that his team will be pressed hard to stay in Western New York for long.

There has been much said about New Orleans since their relocation since hurricane Katrina (and even before) and subsequent return. While it certainly is true that the Saints may move at some point, there is no reason to believe that it will be soon and certainly not to Toronto. How many years must they remain in New Orleans for the NFL to work on getting a new stadium before the NFL may allow them to move without appearing heartless? Five? When that does happen, there is no reason to believe owner Tom Benson would sell the team (and Toronto interests would be successful in acquiring it). He has stated he plans to hand down the team to his granddaughter. A more plausible possibility is Benson would keep the team, and move it to San Antonio, where he resides, and has had discussions to move the team already.

Jacksonville’s owner, as linked above, appears to committed to making his location work in the long haul. The fact is, as an NFL franchise, operating at a break even or slightly in the red level is easy to take for these owners considering their wealth and the appreciation of their franchises. This is not like NHL franchises which bleed money in small, southern US markets. The proposal for a new Vikings stadium in Minneapolis is just reaching funding approval stage with the state legislature and could take two or more years before the Vikings have the opportunity to sell or move should the stadium plan be refused funding.

As for the Buffalo Bills, owner Ralph Wilson has said it will be hard for his team to remain in Buffalo since his estate will be selling the team upon his death, and therefore it will go to the highest bidder. Principals paying $1 billion or more for a team will not want to remain in Buffalo, where the return on the capital investment in the team will not be maximized. Wilson is trying, however, to make the situation to keep the team in Buffalo for local or other buyers more attractive. Expanding his market region to sell out corporate sponsorships, suites, tickets and increase other revenues streams will make the team more likely to stay in Buffalo. He is not waiting to die, leaving a Bills franchise in shambles, ready for buyers to snap up to relocate and destroy the over 40 years of football history he built in Buffalo. Nor is he resigned to the franchise moving to Buffalo North, Toronto, within reach of Buffalo fans and his announced plans should not be seen as laying the groundwork to do so.

Naylor/Brunt conclude:

Buffalo Bills fans won’t have to go near that far to see their team when it plays at the 53,306-seat Rogers Centre next fall. No, that will require just a drive across the border and less than two hours up the highway, for the chance to see a both a football game and a likely glimpse of the future.

Putting a positive spin on such a move, that it can still be Buffalo’s team, even if they play in Toronto, whether for a few games or permanently may ease the guilt of Toronto sports reporters, but it will not sit well with Buffalonians. The fact is, outside of these eight games over the next five years, the Bills will not be playing in Toronto until after 2012 because any owner will have to abide by the current lease, lest they want to get into a drawn out legal battle. And that is long enough away that I will not be lining up for tickets.

In another story, Brunt gives credit to Toronto CFL franchise owners Sokolowski and Cynamon for rescuing the franchise and operating it as a philanthropic work.

They can’t be making money – though, to be fair, they’ll recoup a whole lot on the Grey Cup this year – but are happy to subsidize the franchise, and by extension the league, to enjoy a rather expensive hobby because they’re genuinely passionate about the game.

I think this is better read as he cannot see how they are making money, just like when I see Dell selling personal computers for $500 I cannot see how they are making money because in 1992 computers cost thousands of dollars. I do not know what the Argonauts profit sheet looked like the past few years, but there is no doubt in my mind that both owners have a plan to reach profitability. They may not expect to reach the return on investment of 20% plus per year that venture capitalists expect, or even a respectable 15% that shareholders require, but they do want to get to a black situation and may do so this year, outside of any Grey Cup revenue. Considering the corporate and fan growth locally and the increased league revenues, there can be no question they are closer than when they bought the team. As private owners, though, their profit situation will remain undisclosed. Many past owners have been pointed to as (or ridiculed for) losing money on CFL franchises. However, none have become paupers for owning a team. Instead, they have used their losses as tax write-offs, paid themselves, their children, spouses, and friends handsome salaries and fulfilled their dreams owning a sports franchise and being part of a team.

Later, he summarizes the ideas of other CFL member clubs to combat an NFL presence in Toronto, even if it is on a limited basis.

That maybe the NFL board will stop the Bills’ plan from coming to fruition (as if). Maybe the federal government will intervene. (This government? In this world?) Maybe fans ought to boycott Rogers products in protest (that would be Rogers, corporate sponsors of the CFL). Maybe the Argos could simply pack up and move to London, Ont., or to a non-existent stadium in suburban Mississauga.

Heck, maybe they could just disappear entirely, since the CFL doesn’t need a Toronto team to survive in any case.

What CFL outposts does Brunt pull these comments from? In all I have read surrounding these events, and I have read everything that has come across my news reader feeds, the only comments that came out of the mouth of a CFL individual is the boycott statement from Lions owner David Braley and the Mississauga comment from Rick LeLacheur. The plan not being approved by the NFL? Stated by the media with no attribution (it is a simple possibility). The federal government will pass legislation? Reported by Brunt himself in his Issues at Stake summary, talked about on sports radio, but never quoted out of a CFL governors mouth. Move the Argos to Mississauga? Stated by Edmonton Eskimos president and CEO Rick LeLacheur in an unprepared statement when surrounded by reporters and asked about the breaking story of Bills games coming to Toronto, it can hardly be viewed as an official statement of the league’s stance or plans. It is not ridiculous for the CFL to believe they could have a CFL sized stadium built in a London or Mississauga if other businesspersons believe they can build a $1 billion NFL stadium in Toronto with no public money. At this stage all options are on the table, just like Toronto interests leave all options on the table for obtaining an NFL franchise. As for the CFL not needing a Toronto franchise to survive, it may be harsh to state, but the remainder of the CFL will not immediately collapse if a Toronto franchise finds it impossible to survive at Rogers Centre, BMO field, in Mississauga or anywhere else, and that is important for CFL supporters across the nation to know.

The fact is this story broke fast and the CFL and the member clubs were unprepared. Their comments to the media were not heads-in-the sand dismissing the issue, but statements to their fans that they plan on being in Edmonton, B.C. and elsewhere in the country. Perhaps there should have been no comments except an official statement from the league office, however, that would appear much more fearful of the developments. As an emotional issue, it is expected that long time CFL supporters, with years of sweat, blood and money in the league like David Braley, will lash out at who appears to be a catalyst in the situation, Rogers Media, despite they being a league sponsor. The same way Ralph Wilson curtly barked to reporters “Worried about what?” when the suggestion CFL owners were concerned by his plan was made, an emotional response shows their dedication and concern to the Canadian brand of football as Wilson’s shows his dedication to his club.

The End, or Just the Beginning?

Is the news in the fall of 2007 the end of 30 years of waiting for the NFL to come to Canada and finish off the CFL for good, or the beginning of something else? I believe the latest news bodes well for the CFL, and unlike the media, I do not believe every announcement with “Toronto” and “NFL” in them makes them one step closer to acquiring an NFL franchise.

• The Buffalo Bills’ plan for games in Toronto actually works in Toronto’s favour in keeping an NFL franchise from relocating to Toronto. Seen by the media as a change in the NFL policy to avoid conflict with the Grey Cup in Toronto this year, it actually, in my eyes, caught the NFL office off-guard as well. This was a proposal from the Bills owner, outside of the control of the NFL, which is why there was no prior notification to the CFL. Roger Goodell may have different internationalization ideas than his predecessor Paul Tagliabue, but it is unlikely he is willing to torpedo the Canadian Football League. Any venture of the NFL into Canada must be done properly as to not alienate the Canadian public, which has a growing disapproval of American dominance, especially in the areas of culture.
• If Wilson lives until 2012 it is likely another lease agreement, perhaps for another 10 years, will be signed for Ralph Wilson Stadium, keeping the team in Buffalo for that period, hamstring potential buyers. Five to 15 years from now it is also hard to predict the economic situation and whether the Bills will be attractive to local buyers, for you can never underestimate what governments will do to prevent teams from leaving.
• The NFL’s statement regarding the Bills plans places southern Ontario in the Bills market area. This eliminates Toronto interests from acquiring another franchise and moving it to Toronto, part of the Bills territory. I think that effectively eliminates the talk of Jacksonville, New Orleans or Minnesota relocating to southern Ontario or Toronto acquiring an expansion team.
• These plans for eight games over five years for the Bills at Rogers Centre eliminates the possibility of Toronto getting one of the other international NFL games over the next five years. If the NFL does award games to Canada, they are more likely to go to Edmonton or Vancouver, who have already been quietly bidding on the prospect, or even Montreal, who may also decide to bid for a game at Olympic Stadium. These centres see a single NFL game as another revenue source, a one time experience for their fans to sell out the stadium, but not hurt their CFL attendance. This is similar to clubs hosting Grey Cups, concerts and other promotions as auxiliary sources of income.
• The state of the Toronto Argonauts has not been this strong in years. An assumption is made that all of their fans would immediately flock to an NFL ticket. This cannot be made. First, a vast majority of their patrons are CFL fans, and go to the game because they like the CFL‘s style of play. Secondly, the economics of them switching to NFL tickets, even dropping Argo season tickets for single Bills game tickets in the next few years, may be out of their possibility. Hamilton’s state is much the same. While the NFL’s appearance in Canada’s affect on attendance may be negligible at first, the concern will be long term, as the visibility factor becomes the issue.
• Of greater concern to CFL franchises in southern Ontario, though more for the Argos, is corporate support. This comes in advertising and sponsorship, and affecting the CFL as a whole, television sponsorship. If these items shrink due to money heading to an NFL franchise, eventually visibility will suffer, in the local media and television, which will lead to declining attendance. As long as television numbers continue to be strong there is no reason to believe the television contract would not be worthy to broadcasters and sponsors. This is the major issue facing the CFL, even being a gate driven league. If sponsorship and television can continue to grow, these CFL franchises can survive and coexist with the NFL.
• Listening to powerful voices in the NFL owners circle like Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen it seems apparent that there will be a strong voice in NFL circles for supporting the CFL, and forming a partnership with the CFL so they can reap the benefits of NFL activity in Canada.
• If these reports do not scare off potential investors in a ninth franchise for Ottawa, the CFL will be in a strong position to continue its growth in attendance and television ratings, with stadium expansion scheduled for Montreal, a new stadium and private ownership in Winnipeg and the potential revitalization of the stadium and franchise in Ottawa.
• I have stated that I do not believe Toronto will support an NFL team in the long term. This feeling comes from observing history. The Toronto Blue Jays were a hot ticket, from their expansion, to their first years of contention, to their World Series Championships. Since, attendance has dropped off, and though there have been recent gains with the promise of a team challenging for a pennant, the owners are finding how hard it is to make that challenge, even with increases to team salaries to buy and keep free agents. The high dollar and media ownership has helped keep team losses covered by ancillary benefits. The owners and executives have now even lost interest, and now lust for an NFL team. Governments change, economies change and baby boomers die. When they do, will private owners be ready to be in Buffalo’s position with a shrunken corporate and media market and fans unable to afford $500 tickets? What becomes of the $1 billion stadium then? In Montreal, the arrival of Olympic Stadium in 1976 and sold out crowds led to the belief that once the ownership mismanaged the team and it folded, the NFL would come to town. Never materializing, Quebec is now again a CFL support hotbed, and the NFL is rarely mentioned, while the Big O hosts a couple games a year.

The process will continue to play out, over years and not months, to the chagrin of the media defined Torontonian dying to spend $30,000 on a seat license and $500 per game ticket. As long as CFL fans do not abandon their league in despair or anticipation of what the media report as the end of the league, then the CFL will be around for the NFL’s arrival if the NFL arrives and after.

The story is based mainly on the premise that discussions were had within the CFL about being involved in an NFL move to Canada instead of watching from the sidelines as other parties with no interests but their own obtain a franchise. Besides quoting the anonymous source that this is “the single biggest issue the CFL is facing,” very little information as to the CFL plan is revealed or speculated on, such as how CFL owners (three, soon to be two franchises are community owned) would propose to meet the NFL ownership restrictions and franchise cost. The information provided on the issues in bringing an NFL franchise to Toronto is at best based on little fact and much speculation and at worst wishful thinking.

With this latest rise of Toronto NFL franchise speculation there is at least clarity on the fact that Rogers Centre does not meet the minimum seating requirements of the NFL and a new stadium would have to be built in Toronto to house an NFL team. The idea that seat licenses could fund stadium construction is again floated since any public funding for a stadium is very unlikely. No reporter cares to put the numbers required to accomplish such funding, however. Looking at recent new NFL stadium projects I expect a 70,000 seat stadium to cost from $700 million to $1 billion. This would place seat licenses ranging from anywhere from $7,500 to $15,000 per seat on average. Perhaps there is demand in Toronto for ticket prices to be inflated, but is there enough demand to sell seat licenses for every seat? If you say, yes, the corporate community is starving for this and will shell out those costs and more, then you end up with a stadium full of corporate seats. Maybe that is fine in Toronto, and Torontonians will be happy to have a franchise whose seat licenses and ticket prices are only in the reach of the corporate wealthy.

Later, the spin started with claims the report is speculation and claims from two CFL governors that it was a “crazy concept” just being thrown around. Paul Godfrey took the story as an opportunity to spin it in his Rogers-Tanenbaum group’s favour, stating they are willing to work with the CFL to bring the NFL to Toronto and commit to doing everything in their power to “ensure that the CFL is stronger and healthier.”

It is hard to figure out what side the CFL party who created the story is on. They could either be for or against the idea, and leaking it helped sabatage it, or just someone who wanted to make a name for themselves with some juicy information. It is possible the CFL wanted it leaked to measure public support for the idea, however I see this as unlikely since there are so few details how this could be possible with the CFL owner’s financial strength, so why leak to gauge support when you cannot afford the $1 billion franchise cost. The spin from the CFL also makes it seem like they did not want this to get out.

If I can speculate for a moment, I would wonder if this idea is related to the Ottawa ownership hopefuls. They may have inquired what protection they would have if the NFL came to Toronto and killed the CFL after they ponied up a $5 to $10 million franchise fee. The Argo owners, developers along with the Ottawa franchise candidates with fairly deep pockets, may have been brainstorming on how they can protect themselves. Certainly one way would be for the these owners to band together to acquire an NFL franchise. Toronto owners Cynamon and Sokolowski, Hamilton owner Bob Young, B.C. owner David Braley, and Montreal owner Robert Wetenhall are certainly candidates to contribute to an ownership group with incoming Winnipeg owner David Asper and the potential Ottawa group also appear to have the means. Who could commit what will likely be around $300 million to become a 30% stakeholder is unknown to me. However, these candidates plus a few others in the Canadian business community would have the resources for an NFL franchise purchase price if someone could become the 30% stakeholder. It doesn’t appear any business person would consider this a bad investment either and hesitate to buy in like they might with a CFL franchise if they had the means. It begs the question, though, is this a private enterprise outside of their CFL interests or a holding of the NFL franchise for the CFL and all member clubs to benefit equally? Likely not.

This is important because as I understand it, community owned franchises in Edmonton and Saskatchewan would not be able to hold an ownership stake in an NFL team (and at least Saskatchewan’s financial situation would not allow them to contribute much). In addition, the group that controls the Calgary Stampeders may not have the resources to make meaningful contributions to an NFL ownership group. So it appears that a Canadian NFL franchise would not be able to fund the CFL directly, but only the owners who are able to contribute. Besides having control of the franchise so it does not squash your team by requiring combined season ticket purchases or other tie-ins, it does nothing to help the CFL from being overshadowed. Even though a Toronto CFL franchise may survive on increased ticket sales, if people in the seats is down, what does that do to the league? What about Hamilton? Do you tie NFL season tickets to Tiger-Cat tickets as well? What of television viewers? The two leagues season’s still overlap and a CFL absent or overshadowed on television will lead to league-wide attendance reductions, not just in southern Ontario. I think the real threat to CFL franchises comes not from the loss of fans, but sponsor and television revenue as the new kid on the block gets all the attention.

I agree with Stephen Brunt that this appears to be a way for Toronto’s CFL guardians to protect what they have built with the Argos, but I do not feel there are enough facts showing this is possible to believe it is a serious possibility that is being pursued. Brunt seems to believe the CFL would be the owner, but that is impossible based on an NFL corporate ownership ban and private/public CFL franchise owner disparities unless the NFL changed its constitution. I do not think any individual or small group of CFL owners have the resources to buy a franchise themselves and run it in trust for the league, nor would they be willing to turn their capital over to work for the CFL. Also, with the league as an owner (sayed shared evenly by all franchises), CFL expansion becomes much more complicated. Does a prospective franchisee need to buy in to the NFL franchise with entry into the CFL? Does that mean franchise fees jump to $100 million or more? Certainly owning an NFL franchise would help the CFL attract qualified owners who may want to build stadiums and put CFL franchises in cities if they received a share of the NFL team. Fees of $100 million though might just restrict the number of Canadians capable of doing so. While a CFL run franchise does help the NFL if they want to have a presence in Canada, it ignores the current rules for franchise ownership. For these reasons I do not believe the CFL is to be the holder of the NFL franchise.

I was interested in the report for the fact that the CFL is taking a lead with this issue and not sitting passively waiting for the move to happen one day. However, the more information that is reported about Toronto’s NFL aspirations, the more questions without answers that appear. Where do you stand with this issue? Am I off base believing there is way too much hype out of Toronto and reporters and fans put the blinders on to ignore all the obstacles facing them?

Speculation is that Tootoo, after putting a hit on Dallas forward Mike Modano, was expecting retaliation from other Dallas players despite the hit being clean, and in instinct and self-defence, reacted to the first player upon turning around. This is not to justify his gloved-punch, but to raise the issue whether the NHL player code is flawed, requiring players have to protect themselves after clean hits.

This post is here to take your comments on this and other recent incidents.

Notable Trades

• Ryan Smyth from Edmonton to New York Islanders
• Todd Bertuzzi from Florida to Detroit
• Martin Biron from Buffalo to Philadelphia
• Bill Guerin from St. Louis to San Jose
• Gary Roberts from Florida to Pittsburgh
• Keith Tkachuk from St. Louis to Atlanta
• Anson Carter from Columbus to Carolina

Interesting Notes

Smyth was traded today after the Oilers were unable to sign him to a new contract. Tonight, prior to the Edmonton-Phoenix game in Edmonton, Mark Messier’s number 11 jersey will be retired. Unfortunately the cycle in Edmonton keeps continuing, with Gretzky, Messier, Guerin, Comrie, Pronger and now Smyth have all left Edmonton over essentially monetary reasons. While Edmonton may be able to make a play for Smyth in the free agent market this summer, the Islanders likely have numbers to offer him that they think can keep them since they are in more need than just renting him.

Bertuzzi leaves Florida after less than a season for some draft picks and a prospect after giving up Roberto Luongo to get him last summer.

Pittsburgh added some toughness and grit with the acquisition of Georges Laraque and Gary Roberts. This addressed their noted weakness of toughness to protect Crosby and Malkin. They seem serious about taking a run at the Cup this year.

Overall, the NHL has become a rent-a-ringer league, where there will be plenty of trade activity at the deadline, and unrestricted free agents moving for a few months to teams wanting to take a run in the playoffs. These trades will all be players for prospects and draft choices; the days of the star for star trade are long gone. While some fans believe in win at all cost, I believe all fans would enjoy the results of a team built over time over a team that is assembled for the last six weeks of the season and playoffs, then is disbanded during the summer. Some would say the current situation reflects an instant gratification society. I say that just because society is used to instant gratification does not mean they would not enjoy seeing long-term results from their team.

The Coverage

I only caught some Sportsnet coverage during the day and after the deadline and did not see any TSN or The Score coverage. The whole hype around the trade deadline has gone to far. Sportsnet has been advertising their special HockeyCentral edition for a month. Sportsnet offered the Deal or No Deal Canada girls, the Hanson brothers and mascots in the background playing foosball. Their number one source was some blogger named Eklund who named everyone in the NHL in trade rumours. He first reported that Jason Smyth had signed with the Oilers, only to report two hours later he was traded to the Islanders without batting an eye.

While Sportsnet went for the fluff coverage, TSN apparently went for its standard news reporting format. All networks were on the air for six hours discussing the trades as they came in. Back in the day coverage started an hour or two before the deadline and that was plenty to talk about any deals without repeating yourself. Now, with six hours and so many inconsequential trades to discuss, the talking heads come on to repeat their empty comments over and over about each event and speculation. It seems the audience numbers make this one of the biggest days in Canadian sports television and everyone wants the largest piece of it. I would think that after a few years people would be wise to the waste of time watching the coverage would be, but I know better considering hockey rabid fans in Canada.