I held another set of challenging CFL contests this year.  It was a challenging year in the CFL, with parity making picks much tougher.  Everything culminated with winter’s prelude, an exciting Grey Cup.  Although the outcome disappointed many, it was a tremendous comeback by the Montreal Alouettes.

Before we get fully into hockey season, it is time to check your Grey Cup tickets and pool boards.  If you want the quarter scores from this year’s championship, head over to cfldb.  While you are there, check out some of the information they have added like a searchable CFL rulebook and CFL videos.

There have been a lot of account creations, but not as many entering the contest. I will outline the procedure in case it is not clear. First, you must create an account, which requires a valid email address (I do need to contact you if you win!). I hate spam too, so don’t worry, your email address will not be sold. After creating an account and signing in with the password emailed to you (check your spam filters), enter the contest by entering a team name, selecting the Pick ‘em Challenge contest and accepting the terms and conditions in the sidebar Contest Signup section. After you have entered the contest, a link to your entry home page will appear in the sidebar. Follow the link to see the contest status and make your picks. Not as easy as it could be; I will work on improving the flow in the future. If you have any suggestions, please leave a comment here.

Our initial free contest open to the public, cfldb.ca has graciously stepped forward to provide $150 in prizes for this contest. First place will receive a 2GB iPod Shuffle, second place a $50 Sony Store Gift Card and third place a $25 Ciniplex Gift Card. Call this our first toe in the water. The success of this contest will determine the free contests we hold in the future and the quality of the prizes.

The season starts June 26, so check out the rules, get entered today, then tell your friends. This is a public contest, so feel free to post and link to Overtime Central. In 2008, “This is Our League” is the CFL‘s new motto, so show off your CFL pride by entering our contest. You just may win a prize while you are having a good time.

In Fans should be wary of Bills shuffle, Dave Perkins alerts the public over his perception of the owners-in-waiting motivations and the price for the public taxpayer while stating fan support will decide the flavour of football in Toronto. Jerry Sullivan of the Buffalo News (republished in the Toronto Star) explains why Bills fans have the right to be very worried while Garth Woolsey reports on the reaction in Buffalo. We find the Argos were less than willing partners but forced into trying to make the most out of the situation after the deal was done before they were ever informed. As details on the ticket packages are still lacking, it appears the formal announcement was meant to launch the hype with ticket package details, schedules and on-sale dates still to be determined.

From a Western perspective, Paul Friesen portrays the announcement as the CFL‘s worst nightmare. A more positive look comes from Steve Simmons in Enough fans for both CFL, NFL.

The range of issues are being covered, from the arrogance and motives of wealthy owners and oligopoly moguls to the unspoken cost to taxpayers. Most reports take the tact that either an NFL team or CFL team in Toronto will survive, and bet on the NFL team. In reality, there is nothing precluding both from being successful. While Ted Rogers and Larry Tanenbaum may now be taking a quieter approach to their long term goals to acquire a permanent NFL team for Toronto, specifically the Buffalo Bills, it is apparent that they feel they are on a clear path to that goal and only time stands in the way of that accomplishment. I believe there are a lot more hurdles to overcome both in acquiring a team and keeping it. So it is far from a certainty that these partners will every bring an NFL franchise to Toronto.

So what can someone who enjoys and supports the CFL do?

• Recognize that you can watch and enjoy both leagues if you are so inclined and that this series of games is not any reason to abandon the CFL as a dying league. The CFL will not close its doors overnight. It is a vibrant and growing league, stronger than it has been in 25-30 years.
• Support your local CFL team by attending games and support the CFL by watching the television broadcasts.
• Be vocal and passionate about the CFL. If you want to see improvements to the experience, the game or anything CFL related, let them know. If more offence, more Canadian content or local exposure is your thing, let them know. One voice may not make a difference, but a crowd of people saying the same thing is hard to ignore.

Greg takes home $63 for his first place finish. Finishing in second was the Davin Bull Dogs, coached by Brent Gessner, who receives $18 in prize money. Leaping into third in the final week was Kerri’s Kool Kats, holding off Playoff Picks and PlayoffJunkie. Kool Kats coach Kerri Hysuick takes home $9.

Account balances are up to date. Winners can contact me about paying out prize money. Overtime Central congratulates all the winners and thanks all participants. See you next year!

Between the lies and rumours
There’s a world of mystery

Lies and Rumours — Alannah Myles

Note: To gain a full understanding of the issues surrounding this topic, one must read as much as one can on what has been written about it. I encourage everyone to read as many of the stories linked to in this post for the greatest spectrum of coverage on this subject.

After rumours surfaced around CFL owners pursuing an NFL franchise on their own, I wrote a post asking questions that this development raised as well as a facetious take on the hype it caused. Soon after more stories broke around the Buffalo Bills scheduling to play games in Toronto, which I linked to and said I would address in my verbose fashion at a later date. Now that the plan has been officially announced by the Bills and the commentary is mostly done I provide this summary of the stories and my sober analysis of what this means for Toronto businesspersons who want to acquire an NFL franchise and for the CFL.

To summarize the (mainly) facts known to date:

• The NFL’s Buffalo Bills introduced a plan for approval by the NFL, the state and county to play games outside Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo. The plan was presented to the NFL in October 23 meetings in Philadelphia where the details revealed a regular season game at Rogers Centre in Toronto for five years starting in 2008 plus exhibition games in 2008, 2010 and 2012.
• The state approved the proposal by the Bills prior to the meeting and is expected to receive NFL and county approval by the end of the year. The move is seen by NFL owners as necessary for the Bills’ survival, not as a harbinger of a permanent move of the franchise to Toronto.
• While not determined, there seems to be a will to avoid a conflict with the CFL season by playing the regular season game in December.
• Appearances by Bills’ players in Toronto relate to their goal to expand their territory to the southern Ontario market, which is meant to better position the team to stay in Buffalo long-term, even after Ralph Wilson’s death.
• Edmonton and Vancouver have been lobbying the NFL for a regular season game as part of the NFL’s international plan, while Toronto has been lobbying to delay or block such a game.

Other notes and commentary of interest:

• Contrary to reports, the Jacksonville Jaguars are not close to being for sale or being relocated.
• Briefly noted from the NFL meetings were updates on potential new stadiums in Minneapolis, San Francisco and San Diego.
• A Toronto reporter tries to find perspective on the NFL’s potential in Canada in the heart of CFL country — Saskatchewan, but fills it with stereotypes instead.
• Doug Flutie questions the viability of an NFL franchise in Toronto, but also believes that an NFL franchise may hurt the Toronto Argonauts, forcing it out before the NFL franchise has a chance to fail.
• Reading the comments on the TSN and globesports.com articles linked in this post, you find a strong majority either discounting any possibility of the NFL surviving in Toronto or claiming their indifference to such a move. While not a scientific poll, it is interesting as ten years ago I remember such online conversations being a 50-50 split at best, with CFL supporters often being in the minority.

Unravelling the Mystery

While there have been media responses to the reaction stating the CFL should quit fearing the NFL and embrace it instead, there has been little analysis of how these events makes the city of Toronto any closer to landing an NFL franchise. A Globe and Mail’s David Naylor and Stephen Brunt two-page article tries to examine the “inevitable” arrival of the NFL in Canada, but falls short in its own bias. Occam’s razor states that when presented with multiple theories, the one that introduces the fewest assumptions should be selected. Contrary to this, the media has created a certain future how the NFL will arrive in Canada, ignoring any comments to the contrary, facts, hurdles and assumptions.

Naylor/Brunt start with some unverifiable speculation from a “secret” CFL governors meeting.

There is talk of the Toronto Argonauts trying to form a business relationship with a proposed NFL team. There is a suggestion of a spring-summer season for the CFL, which would culminate with the Grey Cup on Labour Day weekend to accommodate the NFL’s September kickoff.

We know from anonymous governor verification that there was preliminary brainstorming talk from the Toronto Argonaut owners that one way they could control the NFL’s entry into Canada would be to be become a bidder themselves. This discussion never went much farther than this, apparently, to get into the details of the structure of such an ownership group and whether they could form a group with enough capital. The media were quick to report this internal speculation, but failed to follow up and investigate the makeup and means of a Cynamon/Sokolowski ownership group and were critical of CFL governors for dismissing the plan as “preliminary”.

Now Naylor/Brunt make a statement regarding a suggestion of a spring-summer season for the CFL, with a Grey Cup on Labour Day weekend. No examination of such a statement is made. Since there is no attribution to the suggestion, it is much more likely a suggestion of the reporters themselves. Examination of the statement reveals that to hold the Grey Cup Labour Day weekend, the season is being pushed ahead three months, requiring it to start in early April and training camps and the preseason to take place in March. Obviously, this is not possible due to weather concerns, especially in Western Canada, and would likely do more to harm the CFL than an NFL franchise in Toronto as it affects all clubs. If it was spoken in a CFL governors meeting, it was in a “put all options on the table” brainstorming session. I am not saying it will not be pursued by the governors, but upon examination the plan would have to be tweaked to move the season up one month at most. Reporting such a statement as a final solution under consideration is alarmist.

Later, Naylor/Brunt speculate:

Rogers and Tanenbaum alone might have the wealth to buy an NFL team. But word has spread that the two have actively pursued additional financing, perhaps from Katz, the Edmonton drug-store magnate …

They refer to Darryl Katz as a potential third partner for the ownership group, but provide no source, anonymous or otherwise, that this is possibly the case. Katz could not be reached for comment and without an even anonymous source close to Rogers, Tanenbaum, Paul Godfrey, Katz or another individual close to their business interests this seems more like unsubstantiated rumour, which in many cases is baseless.

Naylor/Brunt go on to whitewash the NFL franchise relocation situation.

In fact, there are believed to be several teams that might be looking to move in the not-too-distant future. New Orleans, where the city is still dealing with the fallout from hurricane Katrina. Jacksonville, a small-market where ticket sales remain slow. Minnesota, where the drive for a new stadium is stalled. And Buffalo, where Wilson has been telling everyone for some time that his team will be pressed hard to stay in Western New York for long.

There has been much said about New Orleans since their relocation since hurricane Katrina (and even before) and subsequent return. While it certainly is true that the Saints may move at some point, there is no reason to believe that it will be soon and certainly not to Toronto. How many years must they remain in New Orleans for the NFL to work on getting a new stadium before the NFL may allow them to move without appearing heartless? Five? When that does happen, there is no reason to believe owner Tom Benson would sell the team (and Toronto interests would be successful in acquiring it). He has stated he plans to hand down the team to his granddaughter. A more plausible possibility is Benson would keep the team, and move it to San Antonio, where he resides, and has had discussions to move the team already.

Jacksonville’s owner, as linked above, appears to committed to making his location work in the long haul. The fact is, as an NFL franchise, operating at a break even or slightly in the red level is easy to take for these owners considering their wealth and the appreciation of their franchises. This is not like NHL franchises which bleed money in small, southern US markets. The proposal for a new Vikings stadium in Minneapolis is just reaching funding approval stage with the state legislature and could take two or more years before the Vikings have the opportunity to sell or move should the stadium plan be refused funding.

As for the Buffalo Bills, owner Ralph Wilson has said it will be hard for his team to remain in Buffalo since his estate will be selling the team upon his death, and therefore it will go to the highest bidder. Principals paying $1 billion or more for a team will not want to remain in Buffalo, where the return on the capital investment in the team will not be maximized. Wilson is trying, however, to make the situation to keep the team in Buffalo for local or other buyers more attractive. Expanding his market region to sell out corporate sponsorships, suites, tickets and increase other revenues streams will make the team more likely to stay in Buffalo. He is not waiting to die, leaving a Bills franchise in shambles, ready for buyers to snap up to relocate and destroy the over 40 years of football history he built in Buffalo. Nor is he resigned to the franchise moving to Buffalo North, Toronto, within reach of Buffalo fans and his announced plans should not be seen as laying the groundwork to do so.

Naylor/Brunt conclude:

Buffalo Bills fans won’t have to go near that far to see their team when it plays at the 53,306-seat Rogers Centre next fall. No, that will require just a drive across the border and less than two hours up the highway, for the chance to see a both a football game and a likely glimpse of the future.

Putting a positive spin on such a move, that it can still be Buffalo’s team, even if they play in Toronto, whether for a few games or permanently may ease the guilt of Toronto sports reporters, but it will not sit well with Buffalonians. The fact is, outside of these eight games over the next five years, the Bills will not be playing in Toronto until after 2012 because any owner will have to abide by the current lease, lest they want to get into a drawn out legal battle. And that is long enough away that I will not be lining up for tickets.

In another story, Brunt gives credit to Toronto CFL franchise owners Sokolowski and Cynamon for rescuing the franchise and operating it as a philanthropic work.

They can’t be making money – though, to be fair, they’ll recoup a whole lot on the Grey Cup this year – but are happy to subsidize the franchise, and by extension the league, to enjoy a rather expensive hobby because they’re genuinely passionate about the game.

I think this is better read as he cannot see how they are making money, just like when I see Dell selling personal computers for $500 I cannot see how they are making money because in 1992 computers cost thousands of dollars. I do not know what the Argonauts profit sheet looked like the past few years, but there is no doubt in my mind that both owners have a plan to reach profitability. They may not expect to reach the return on investment of 20% plus per year that venture capitalists expect, or even a respectable 15% that shareholders require, but they do want to get to a black situation and may do so this year, outside of any Grey Cup revenue. Considering the corporate and fan growth locally and the increased league revenues, there can be no question they are closer than when they bought the team. As private owners, though, their profit situation will remain undisclosed. Many past owners have been pointed to as (or ridiculed for) losing money on CFL franchises. However, none have become paupers for owning a team. Instead, they have used their losses as tax write-offs, paid themselves, their children, spouses, and friends handsome salaries and fulfilled their dreams owning a sports franchise and being part of a team.

Later, he summarizes the ideas of other CFL member clubs to combat an NFL presence in Toronto, even if it is on a limited basis.

That maybe the NFL board will stop the Bills’ plan from coming to fruition (as if). Maybe the federal government will intervene. (This government? In this world?) Maybe fans ought to boycott Rogers products in protest (that would be Rogers, corporate sponsors of the CFL). Maybe the Argos could simply pack up and move to London, Ont., or to a non-existent stadium in suburban Mississauga.

Heck, maybe they could just disappear entirely, since the CFL doesn’t need a Toronto team to survive in any case.

What CFL outposts does Brunt pull these comments from? In all I have read surrounding these events, and I have read everything that has come across my news reader feeds, the only comments that came out of the mouth of a CFL individual is the boycott statement from Lions owner David Braley and the Mississauga comment from Rick LeLacheur. The plan not being approved by the NFL? Stated by the media with no attribution (it is a simple possibility). The federal government will pass legislation? Reported by Brunt himself in his Issues at Stake summary, talked about on sports radio, but never quoted out of a CFL governors mouth. Move the Argos to Mississauga? Stated by Edmonton Eskimos president and CEO Rick LeLacheur in an unprepared statement when surrounded by reporters and asked about the breaking story of Bills games coming to Toronto, it can hardly be viewed as an official statement of the league’s stance or plans. It is not ridiculous for the CFL to believe they could have a CFL sized stadium built in a London or Mississauga if other businesspersons believe they can build a $1 billion NFL stadium in Toronto with no public money. At this stage all options are on the table, just like Toronto interests leave all options on the table for obtaining an NFL franchise. As for the CFL not needing a Toronto franchise to survive, it may be harsh to state, but the remainder of the CFL will not immediately collapse if a Toronto franchise finds it impossible to survive at Rogers Centre, BMO field, in Mississauga or anywhere else, and that is important for CFL supporters across the nation to know.

The fact is this story broke fast and the CFL and the member clubs were unprepared. Their comments to the media were not heads-in-the sand dismissing the issue, but statements to their fans that they plan on being in Edmonton, B.C. and elsewhere in the country. Perhaps there should have been no comments except an official statement from the league office, however, that would appear much more fearful of the developments. As an emotional issue, it is expected that long time CFL supporters, with years of sweat, blood and money in the league like David Braley, will lash out at who appears to be a catalyst in the situation, Rogers Media, despite they being a league sponsor. The same way Ralph Wilson curtly barked to reporters “Worried about what?” when the suggestion CFL owners were concerned by his plan was made, an emotional response shows their dedication and concern to the Canadian brand of football as Wilson’s shows his dedication to his club.

The End, or Just the Beginning?

Is the news in the fall of 2007 the end of 30 years of waiting for the NFL to come to Canada and finish off the CFL for good, or the beginning of something else? I believe the latest news bodes well for the CFL, and unlike the media, I do not believe every announcement with “Toronto” and “NFL” in them makes them one step closer to acquiring an NFL franchise.

• The Buffalo Bills’ plan for games in Toronto actually works in Toronto’s favour in keeping an NFL franchise from relocating to Toronto. Seen by the media as a change in the NFL policy to avoid conflict with the Grey Cup in Toronto this year, it actually, in my eyes, caught the NFL office off-guard as well. This was a proposal from the Bills owner, outside of the control of the NFL, which is why there was no prior notification to the CFL. Roger Goodell may have different internationalization ideas than his predecessor Paul Tagliabue, but it is unlikely he is willing to torpedo the Canadian Football League. Any venture of the NFL into Canada must be done properly as to not alienate the Canadian public, which has a growing disapproval of American dominance, especially in the areas of culture.
• If Wilson lives until 2012 it is likely another lease agreement, perhaps for another 10 years, will be signed for Ralph Wilson Stadium, keeping the team in Buffalo for that period, hamstring potential buyers. Five to 15 years from now it is also hard to predict the economic situation and whether the Bills will be attractive to local buyers, for you can never underestimate what governments will do to prevent teams from leaving.
• The NFL’s statement regarding the Bills plans places southern Ontario in the Bills market area. This eliminates Toronto interests from acquiring another franchise and moving it to Toronto, part of the Bills territory. I think that effectively eliminates the talk of Jacksonville, New Orleans or Minnesota relocating to southern Ontario or Toronto acquiring an expansion team.
• These plans for eight games over five years for the Bills at Rogers Centre eliminates the possibility of Toronto getting one of the other international NFL games over the next five years. If the NFL does award games to Canada, they are more likely to go to Edmonton or Vancouver, who have already been quietly bidding on the prospect, or even Montreal, who may also decide to bid for a game at Olympic Stadium. These centres see a single NFL game as another revenue source, a one time experience for their fans to sell out the stadium, but not hurt their CFL attendance. This is similar to clubs hosting Grey Cups, concerts and other promotions as auxiliary sources of income.
• The state of the Toronto Argonauts has not been this strong in years. An assumption is made that all of their fans would immediately flock to an NFL ticket. This cannot be made. First, a vast majority of their patrons are CFL fans, and go to the game because they like the CFL‘s style of play. Secondly, the economics of them switching to NFL tickets, even dropping Argo season tickets for single Bills game tickets in the next few years, may be out of their possibility. Hamilton’s state is much the same. While the NFL’s appearance in Canada’s affect on attendance may be negligible at first, the concern will be long term, as the visibility factor becomes the issue.
• Of greater concern to CFL franchises in southern Ontario, though more for the Argos, is corporate support. This comes in advertising and sponsorship, and affecting the CFL as a whole, television sponsorship. If these items shrink due to money heading to an NFL franchise, eventually visibility will suffer, in the local media and television, which will lead to declining attendance. As long as television numbers continue to be strong there is no reason to believe the television contract would not be worthy to broadcasters and sponsors. This is the major issue facing the CFL, even being a gate driven league. If sponsorship and television can continue to grow, these CFL franchises can survive and coexist with the NFL.
• Listening to powerful voices in the NFL owners circle like Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen it seems apparent that there will be a strong voice in NFL circles for supporting the CFL, and forming a partnership with the CFL so they can reap the benefits of NFL activity in Canada.
• If these reports do not scare off potential investors in a ninth franchise for Ottawa, the CFL will be in a strong position to continue its growth in attendance and television ratings, with stadium expansion scheduled for Montreal, a new stadium and private ownership in Winnipeg and the potential revitalization of the stadium and franchise in Ottawa.
• I have stated that I do not believe Toronto will support an NFL team in the long term. This feeling comes from observing history. The Toronto Blue Jays were a hot ticket, from their expansion, to their first years of contention, to their World Series Championships. Since, attendance has dropped off, and though there have been recent gains with the promise of a team challenging for a pennant, the owners are finding how hard it is to make that challenge, even with increases to team salaries to buy and keep free agents. The high dollar and media ownership has helped keep team losses covered by ancillary benefits. The owners and executives have now even lost interest, and now lust for an NFL team. Governments change, economies change and baby boomers die. When they do, will private owners be ready to be in Buffalo’s position with a shrunken corporate and media market and fans unable to afford $500 tickets? What becomes of the $1 billion stadium then? In Montreal, the arrival of Olympic Stadium in 1976 and sold out crowds led to the belief that once the ownership mismanaged the team and it folded, the NFL would come to town. Never materializing, Quebec is now again a CFL support hotbed, and the NFL is rarely mentioned, while the Big O hosts a couple games a year.

The process will continue to play out, over years and not months, to the chagrin of the media defined Torontonian dying to spend $30,000 on a seat license and $500 per game ticket. As long as CFL fans do not abandon their league in despair or anticipation of what the media report as the end of the league, then the CFL will be around for the NFL’s arrival if the NFL arrives and after.

This year’s playoff contest has some slightly different scoring rules than past pick-the-score contests. One major change is adding an over/under prediction for each game. The over/under line values have been calculated by taking the average total score in each of the CFL playoff games the last 10 years. Over/under predictions can be made independent of the actual score you predict for the game. See the contest rules for full details.

A quick note on future contests at Overtime Central; I am planning to get some kind of hockey contest going in January, but that will be dependent on me finding the time to create, test and verify the contest. One motivating factor for me is how much interest there is for such a contest. Leave a comment here or send me an email if you are dying for an Overtime Central NHL contest this winter.

Good luck to everyone in the 2007 CFL Playoffs Pick ‘em Pool!

So did you hear the news? Even the CFL wants to bring an NFL franchise to Toronto. That seals it. There is nothing standing in our way now.

Yes, it appears there was some discussion of this internally, initiated by the Argo ownership, but is was real preliminary, thinking-out-loud talk. The fact is anyone with these ambitions are still hampered by the lack of a franchise being available and what the cost will be. The NFL is not expanding to Canada (or anywhere right now for that matter) and no teams have requested to relocate. To acquire a franchise, one has to come up for sale. Then you must navigate the local governments trying to sweeten the pot for local owners, then outbid all bidders wanting to keep the team in place or relocate the franchise.

But it is only a matter of time, right? I mean Ralph Wilson is on his deathbed.

Last time I saw Ralph Wilson, he looked very well. People with billions of dollars tend to get very good health care. Wilson is only 89; I’m sure you have relatives that have lived longer.

OK, but there are other franchises. Won’t one of them be available soon?

What is your definition of soon? Can the NFL let the New Orleans Saints leave town without appearing to be kicking a city when it is down? Maybe in five years. Maybe New Orleans owner Tom Benson will be able to arrange for new stadium funding to make up for the mess after Hurricane Katrina. The Jacksonville Jaguars? There is not enough buzz to believe they are close to being for sale or requesting relocation. The Minnesota Vikings? I think it is more than a long shot that a franchise as storied as the Vikings would relocate or come up for sale to be moved. Remember when the Minnesota Twins were contracted? Now a new ballpark is being built in Minneapolis, partially funded by taxpayers when the billionaire Twins owner is one of the richest owners in baseball.

Well, it will happen eventually. We know Ralph Wilson’s estate will be selling the Buffalo Bills. Then I will be watching the NFL at Rogers Centre.

So in 5 or 10 years the Bills will be auctioned. Let’s say a Toronto group is successful in acquiring the franchise. They will then have to put the NFL on notice of their desire to move the team. That will likely require another year in Buffalo. Perhaps a few more years if they decide to play in the larger stadium rather than lose 20,000 seats by moving to Rogers Centre until a new stadium needs to be built. You do realize a new stadium is required?

Yes, but they have a plan for that. I’m sure it will be awesome. I can’t wait for the Super Bowl to come to TO!

Sure, the plan being to finance the building of a new stadium with seat licenses and naming rights. The stadium will have to be covered, right? Especially if you want Toronto to host the Super Bowl. Even if that isn’t a requirement, Toronto fans won’t sit outside in November let alone December and January so covered is a must. So you are looking at $1 billion if recent stadiums in New York and Dallas are any indication. You better build it right the first time, otherwise you will be asked to pay seat licenses again in 10 years for the next state-of-the-art stadium. So that probably puts the seat licenses out of your price range, even if they only seat license half of the stadium cost and debenture what was left after naming rights. Taking on any debt is not likely since the stadium has no revenue streams except football. There will likely be the odd concert, but those events are a break even prospect to cover operating costs during the off season.

But the Canadian dollar is strong. Now is the time to buy a team and build a stadium when $2 billion = $2 billion.

Sure. When bringing the NFL to Toronto was first raised 30 years ago the dollar was above par and now it is again. But the 30 years in between it wasn’t. So any franchise better be prepared to go through years of a 60 cent Canadian dollar, and perhaps not even par by the time they get a team. Then 4-5 years to get a stadium constructed and with the way construction costs overruns go, the final stadium price could run $1.5 billion or more. No one knows. It could be enough for everyone to forget Montreal’s Olympic Stadium.

I’m sure that there can be some help from the three levels of government if money is needed to complete it.

I would not count on that. I would expect seat licenses to increase as the Mayor, Premier and Prime Minister have all nixed the idea of public money helping private billionaires and their sport teams. No government will stop private citizens from pursuing these opportunities, but no public money will go to help them. That will not change with any changes in government either.

Why are you so against this idea? We have MLB and the NBA and you were not opposed to that. Toronto is an international city and we deserve to have an NFL team.

The difference is there were no professional baseball and basketball leagues operating in Canada that the entry of MLB and the NBA in Canada affected. I believe that making a hostile franchise move of an NFL team into Canada may not be successful in the long term. The NFL has a strong record of supporting and not competing with the CFL, so it may not like coming to Canada under someone else’s terms. There is no guarantee American owners will grant a Canadian franchise the same share of television money or other revenue sharing if they are seen as rogue owners who are hurting the leagues revenue generation ability. If a Toronto franchise is financially crippled this way, the owners may end up having enough during a period of a low dollar and depressed economy and move or sell the team. If by this time the unique and culturally significant CFL was irrecoverably affected, this move by private citizens would have irreparably harmed Canada. I am not really against it as being a realist about the constant hype built on speculation, perhaps years before any of this comes to fruition.

You are making a lot of assumptions and conjecture about what might happen.

So are you. Your assumptions are just that Toronto bidders will be the only bidders, the NFL will be happy with the purchase, someone will pay for it, it will happen quickly and you will be celebrating a Super Bowl win by the Toronto Atoms on home field in the next decade.

The Toronto Atoms? No way. I think we should name them the Toronto Bills, or maybe the Ontario Bills… or the Canada Bills!

Great. You do realize what the Bills record in Super Bowls is?

The story is based mainly on the premise that discussions were had within the CFL about being involved in an NFL move to Canada instead of watching from the sidelines as other parties with no interests but their own obtain a franchise. Besides quoting the anonymous source that this is “the single biggest issue the CFL is facing,” very little information as to the CFL plan is revealed or speculated on, such as how CFL owners (three, soon to be two franchises are community owned) would propose to meet the NFL ownership restrictions and franchise cost. The information provided on the issues in bringing an NFL franchise to Toronto is at best based on little fact and much speculation and at worst wishful thinking.

With this latest rise of Toronto NFL franchise speculation there is at least clarity on the fact that Rogers Centre does not meet the minimum seating requirements of the NFL and a new stadium would have to be built in Toronto to house an NFL team. The idea that seat licenses could fund stadium construction is again floated since any public funding for a stadium is very unlikely. No reporter cares to put the numbers required to accomplish such funding, however. Looking at recent new NFL stadium projects I expect a 70,000 seat stadium to cost from $700 million to $1 billion. This would place seat licenses ranging from anywhere from $7,500 to $15,000 per seat on average. Perhaps there is demand in Toronto for ticket prices to be inflated, but is there enough demand to sell seat licenses for every seat? If you say, yes, the corporate community is starving for this and will shell out those costs and more, then you end up with a stadium full of corporate seats. Maybe that is fine in Toronto, and Torontonians will be happy to have a franchise whose seat licenses and ticket prices are only in the reach of the corporate wealthy.

Later, the spin started with claims the report is speculation and claims from two CFL governors that it was a “crazy concept” just being thrown around. Paul Godfrey took the story as an opportunity to spin it in his Rogers-Tanenbaum group’s favour, stating they are willing to work with the CFL to bring the NFL to Toronto and commit to doing everything in their power to “ensure that the CFL is stronger and healthier.”

It is hard to figure out what side the CFL party who created the story is on. They could either be for or against the idea, and leaking it helped sabatage it, or just someone who wanted to make a name for themselves with some juicy information. It is possible the CFL wanted it leaked to measure public support for the idea, however I see this as unlikely since there are so few details how this could be possible with the CFL owner’s financial strength, so why leak to gauge support when you cannot afford the $1 billion franchise cost. The spin from the CFL also makes it seem like they did not want this to get out.

If I can speculate for a moment, I would wonder if this idea is related to the Ottawa ownership hopefuls. They may have inquired what protection they would have if the NFL came to Toronto and killed the CFL after they ponied up a $5 to $10 million franchise fee. The Argo owners, developers along with the Ottawa franchise candidates with fairly deep pockets, may have been brainstorming on how they can protect themselves. Certainly one way would be for the these owners to band together to acquire an NFL franchise. Toronto owners Cynamon and Sokolowski, Hamilton owner Bob Young, B.C. owner David Braley, and Montreal owner Robert Wetenhall are certainly candidates to contribute to an ownership group with incoming Winnipeg owner David Asper and the potential Ottawa group also appear to have the means. Who could commit what will likely be around $300 million to become a 30% stakeholder is unknown to me. However, these candidates plus a few others in the Canadian business community would have the resources for an NFL franchise purchase price if someone could become the 30% stakeholder. It doesn’t appear any business person would consider this a bad investment either and hesitate to buy in like they might with a CFL franchise if they had the means. It begs the question, though, is this a private enterprise outside of their CFL interests or a holding of the NFL franchise for the CFL and all member clubs to benefit equally? Likely not.

This is important because as I understand it, community owned franchises in Edmonton and Saskatchewan would not be able to hold an ownership stake in an NFL team (and at least Saskatchewan’s financial situation would not allow them to contribute much). In addition, the group that controls the Calgary Stampeders may not have the resources to make meaningful contributions to an NFL ownership group. So it appears that a Canadian NFL franchise would not be able to fund the CFL directly, but only the owners who are able to contribute. Besides having control of the franchise so it does not squash your team by requiring combined season ticket purchases or other tie-ins, it does nothing to help the CFL from being overshadowed. Even though a Toronto CFL franchise may survive on increased ticket sales, if people in the seats is down, what does that do to the league? What about Hamilton? Do you tie NFL season tickets to Tiger-Cat tickets as well? What of television viewers? The two leagues season’s still overlap and a CFL absent or overshadowed on television will lead to league-wide attendance reductions, not just in southern Ontario. I think the real threat to CFL franchises comes not from the loss of fans, but sponsor and television revenue as the new kid on the block gets all the attention.

I agree with Stephen Brunt that this appears to be a way for Toronto’s CFL guardians to protect what they have built with the Argos, but I do not feel there are enough facts showing this is possible to believe it is a serious possibility that is being pursued. Brunt seems to believe the CFL would be the owner, but that is impossible based on an NFL corporate ownership ban and private/public CFL franchise owner disparities unless the NFL changed its constitution. I do not think any individual or small group of CFL owners have the resources to buy a franchise themselves and run it in trust for the league, nor would they be willing to turn their capital over to work for the CFL. Also, with the league as an owner (sayed shared evenly by all franchises), CFL expansion becomes much more complicated. Does a prospective franchisee need to buy in to the NFL franchise with entry into the CFL? Does that mean franchise fees jump to $100 million or more? Certainly owning an NFL franchise would help the CFL attract qualified owners who may want to build stadiums and put CFL franchises in cities if they received a share of the NFL team. Fees of $100 million though might just restrict the number of Canadians capable of doing so. While a CFL run franchise does help the NFL if they want to have a presence in Canada, it ignores the current rules for franchise ownership. For these reasons I do not believe the CFL is to be the holder of the NFL franchise.

I was interested in the report for the fact that the CFL is taking a lead with this issue and not sitting passively waiting for the move to happen one day. However, the more information that is reported about Toronto’s NFL aspirations, the more questions without answers that appear. Where do you stand with this issue? Am I off base believing there is way too much hype out of Toronto and reporters and fans put the blinders on to ignore all the obstacles facing them?