In Fans should be wary of Bills shuffle, Dave Perkins alerts the public over his perception of the owners-in-waiting motivations and the price for the public taxpayer while stating fan support will decide the flavour of football in Toronto. Jerry Sullivan of the Buffalo News (republished in the Toronto Star) explains why Bills fans have the right to be very worried while Garth Woolsey reports on the reaction in Buffalo. We find the Argos were less than willing partners but forced into trying to make the most out of the situation after the deal was done before they were ever informed. As details on the ticket packages are still lacking, it appears the formal announcement was meant to launch the hype with ticket package details, schedules and on-sale dates still to be determined.

From a Western perspective, Paul Friesen portrays the announcement as the CFL‘s worst nightmare. A more positive look comes from Steve Simmons in Enough fans for both CFL, NFL.

The range of issues are being covered, from the arrogance and motives of wealthy owners and oligopoly moguls to the unspoken cost to taxpayers. Most reports take the tact that either an NFL team or CFL team in Toronto will survive, and bet on the NFL team. In reality, there is nothing precluding both from being successful. While Ted Rogers and Larry Tanenbaum may now be taking a quieter approach to their long term goals to acquire a permanent NFL team for Toronto, specifically the Buffalo Bills, it is apparent that they feel they are on a clear path to that goal and only time stands in the way of that accomplishment. I believe there are a lot more hurdles to overcome both in acquiring a team and keeping it. So it is far from a certainty that these partners will every bring an NFL franchise to Toronto.

So what can someone who enjoys and supports the CFL do?

• Recognize that you can watch and enjoy both leagues if you are so inclined and that this series of games is not any reason to abandon the CFL as a dying league. The CFL will not close its doors overnight. It is a vibrant and growing league, stronger than it has been in 25-30 years.
• Support your local CFL team by attending games and support the CFL by watching the television broadcasts.
• Be vocal and passionate about the CFL. If you want to see improvements to the experience, the game or anything CFL related, let them know. If more offence, more Canadian content or local exposure is your thing, let them know. One voice may not make a difference, but a crowd of people saying the same thing is hard to ignore.

Between the lies and rumours
There’s a world of mystery

Lies and Rumours — Alannah Myles

Note: To gain a full understanding of the issues surrounding this topic, one must read as much as one can on what has been written about it. I encourage everyone to read as many of the stories linked to in this post for the greatest spectrum of coverage on this subject.

After rumours surfaced around CFL owners pursuing an NFL franchise on their own, I wrote a post asking questions that this development raised as well as a facetious take on the hype it caused. Soon after more stories broke around the Buffalo Bills scheduling to play games in Toronto, which I linked to and said I would address in my verbose fashion at a later date. Now that the plan has been officially announced by the Bills and the commentary is mostly done I provide this summary of the stories and my sober analysis of what this means for Toronto businesspersons who want to acquire an NFL franchise and for the CFL.

To summarize the (mainly) facts known to date:

• The NFL’s Buffalo Bills introduced a plan for approval by the NFL, the state and county to play games outside Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo. The plan was presented to the NFL in October 23 meetings in Philadelphia where the details revealed a regular season game at Rogers Centre in Toronto for five years starting in 2008 plus exhibition games in 2008, 2010 and 2012.
• The state approved the proposal by the Bills prior to the meeting and is expected to receive NFL and county approval by the end of the year. The move is seen by NFL owners as necessary for the Bills’ survival, not as a harbinger of a permanent move of the franchise to Toronto.
• While not determined, there seems to be a will to avoid a conflict with the CFL season by playing the regular season game in December.
• Appearances by Bills’ players in Toronto relate to their goal to expand their territory to the southern Ontario market, which is meant to better position the team to stay in Buffalo long-term, even after Ralph Wilson’s death.
• Edmonton and Vancouver have been lobbying the NFL for a regular season game as part of the NFL’s international plan, while Toronto has been lobbying to delay or block such a game.

Other notes and commentary of interest:

• Contrary to reports, the Jacksonville Jaguars are not close to being for sale or being relocated.
• Briefly noted from the NFL meetings were updates on potential new stadiums in Minneapolis, San Francisco and San Diego.
• A Toronto reporter tries to find perspective on the NFL’s potential in Canada in the heart of CFL country — Saskatchewan, but fills it with stereotypes instead.
• Doug Flutie questions the viability of an NFL franchise in Toronto, but also believes that an NFL franchise may hurt the Toronto Argonauts, forcing it out before the NFL franchise has a chance to fail.
• Reading the comments on the TSN and globesports.com articles linked in this post, you find a strong majority either discounting any possibility of the NFL surviving in Toronto or claiming their indifference to such a move. While not a scientific poll, it is interesting as ten years ago I remember such online conversations being a 50-50 split at best, with CFL supporters often being in the minority.

Unravelling the Mystery

While there have been media responses to the reaction stating the CFL should quit fearing the NFL and embrace it instead, there has been little analysis of how these events makes the city of Toronto any closer to landing an NFL franchise. A Globe and Mail’s David Naylor and Stephen Brunt two-page article tries to examine the “inevitable” arrival of the NFL in Canada, but falls short in its own bias. Occam’s razor states that when presented with multiple theories, the one that introduces the fewest assumptions should be selected. Contrary to this, the media has created a certain future how the NFL will arrive in Canada, ignoring any comments to the contrary, facts, hurdles and assumptions.

Naylor/Brunt start with some unverifiable speculation from a “secret” CFL governors meeting.

There is talk of the Toronto Argonauts trying to form a business relationship with a proposed NFL team. There is a suggestion of a spring-summer season for the CFL, which would culminate with the Grey Cup on Labour Day weekend to accommodate the NFL’s September kickoff.

We know from anonymous governor verification that there was preliminary brainstorming talk from the Toronto Argonaut owners that one way they could control the NFL’s entry into Canada would be to be become a bidder themselves. This discussion never went much farther than this, apparently, to get into the details of the structure of such an ownership group and whether they could form a group with enough capital. The media were quick to report this internal speculation, but failed to follow up and investigate the makeup and means of a Cynamon/Sokolowski ownership group and were critical of CFL governors for dismissing the plan as “preliminary”.

Now Naylor/Brunt make a statement regarding a suggestion of a spring-summer season for the CFL, with a Grey Cup on Labour Day weekend. No examination of such a statement is made. Since there is no attribution to the suggestion, it is much more likely a suggestion of the reporters themselves. Examination of the statement reveals that to hold the Grey Cup Labour Day weekend, the season is being pushed ahead three months, requiring it to start in early April and training camps and the preseason to take place in March. Obviously, this is not possible due to weather concerns, especially in Western Canada, and would likely do more to harm the CFL than an NFL franchise in Toronto as it affects all clubs. If it was spoken in a CFL governors meeting, it was in a “put all options on the table” brainstorming session. I am not saying it will not be pursued by the governors, but upon examination the plan would have to be tweaked to move the season up one month at most. Reporting such a statement as a final solution under consideration is alarmist.

Later, Naylor/Brunt speculate:

Rogers and Tanenbaum alone might have the wealth to buy an NFL team. But word has spread that the two have actively pursued additional financing, perhaps from Katz, the Edmonton drug-store magnate …

They refer to Darryl Katz as a potential third partner for the ownership group, but provide no source, anonymous or otherwise, that this is possibly the case. Katz could not be reached for comment and without an even anonymous source close to Rogers, Tanenbaum, Paul Godfrey, Katz or another individual close to their business interests this seems more like unsubstantiated rumour, which in many cases is baseless.

Naylor/Brunt go on to whitewash the NFL franchise relocation situation.

In fact, there are believed to be several teams that might be looking to move in the not-too-distant future. New Orleans, where the city is still dealing with the fallout from hurricane Katrina. Jacksonville, a small-market where ticket sales remain slow. Minnesota, where the drive for a new stadium is stalled. And Buffalo, where Wilson has been telling everyone for some time that his team will be pressed hard to stay in Western New York for long.

There has been much said about New Orleans since their relocation since hurricane Katrina (and even before) and subsequent return. While it certainly is true that the Saints may move at some point, there is no reason to believe that it will be soon and certainly not to Toronto. How many years must they remain in New Orleans for the NFL to work on getting a new stadium before the NFL may allow them to move without appearing heartless? Five? When that does happen, there is no reason to believe owner Tom Benson would sell the team (and Toronto interests would be successful in acquiring it). He has stated he plans to hand down the team to his granddaughter. A more plausible possibility is Benson would keep the team, and move it to San Antonio, where he resides, and has had discussions to move the team already.

Jacksonville’s owner, as linked above, appears to committed to making his location work in the long haul. The fact is, as an NFL franchise, operating at a break even or slightly in the red level is easy to take for these owners considering their wealth and the appreciation of their franchises. This is not like NHL franchises which bleed money in small, southern US markets. The proposal for a new Vikings stadium in Minneapolis is just reaching funding approval stage with the state legislature and could take two or more years before the Vikings have the opportunity to sell or move should the stadium plan be refused funding.

As for the Buffalo Bills, owner Ralph Wilson has said it will be hard for his team to remain in Buffalo since his estate will be selling the team upon his death, and therefore it will go to the highest bidder. Principals paying $1 billion or more for a team will not want to remain in Buffalo, where the return on the capital investment in the team will not be maximized. Wilson is trying, however, to make the situation to keep the team in Buffalo for local or other buyers more attractive. Expanding his market region to sell out corporate sponsorships, suites, tickets and increase other revenues streams will make the team more likely to stay in Buffalo. He is not waiting to die, leaving a Bills franchise in shambles, ready for buyers to snap up to relocate and destroy the over 40 years of football history he built in Buffalo. Nor is he resigned to the franchise moving to Buffalo North, Toronto, within reach of Buffalo fans and his announced plans should not be seen as laying the groundwork to do so.

Naylor/Brunt conclude:

Buffalo Bills fans won’t have to go near that far to see their team when it plays at the 53,306-seat Rogers Centre next fall. No, that will require just a drive across the border and less than two hours up the highway, for the chance to see a both a football game and a likely glimpse of the future.

Putting a positive spin on such a move, that it can still be Buffalo’s team, even if they play in Toronto, whether for a few games or permanently may ease the guilt of Toronto sports reporters, but it will not sit well with Buffalonians. The fact is, outside of these eight games over the next five years, the Bills will not be playing in Toronto until after 2012 because any owner will have to abide by the current lease, lest they want to get into a drawn out legal battle. And that is long enough away that I will not be lining up for tickets.

In another story, Brunt gives credit to Toronto CFL franchise owners Sokolowski and Cynamon for rescuing the franchise and operating it as a philanthropic work.

They can’t be making money – though, to be fair, they’ll recoup a whole lot on the Grey Cup this year – but are happy to subsidize the franchise, and by extension the league, to enjoy a rather expensive hobby because they’re genuinely passionate about the game.

I think this is better read as he cannot see how they are making money, just like when I see Dell selling personal computers for $500 I cannot see how they are making money because in 1992 computers cost thousands of dollars. I do not know what the Argonauts profit sheet looked like the past few years, but there is no doubt in my mind that both owners have a plan to reach profitability. They may not expect to reach the return on investment of 20% plus per year that venture capitalists expect, or even a respectable 15% that shareholders require, but they do want to get to a black situation and may do so this year, outside of any Grey Cup revenue. Considering the corporate and fan growth locally and the increased league revenues, there can be no question they are closer than when they bought the team. As private owners, though, their profit situation will remain undisclosed. Many past owners have been pointed to as (or ridiculed for) losing money on CFL franchises. However, none have become paupers for owning a team. Instead, they have used their losses as tax write-offs, paid themselves, their children, spouses, and friends handsome salaries and fulfilled their dreams owning a sports franchise and being part of a team.

Later, he summarizes the ideas of other CFL member clubs to combat an NFL presence in Toronto, even if it is on a limited basis.

That maybe the NFL board will stop the Bills’ plan from coming to fruition (as if). Maybe the federal government will intervene. (This government? In this world?) Maybe fans ought to boycott Rogers products in protest (that would be Rogers, corporate sponsors of the CFL). Maybe the Argos could simply pack up and move to London, Ont., or to a non-existent stadium in suburban Mississauga.

Heck, maybe they could just disappear entirely, since the CFL doesn’t need a Toronto team to survive in any case.

What CFL outposts does Brunt pull these comments from? In all I have read surrounding these events, and I have read everything that has come across my news reader feeds, the only comments that came out of the mouth of a CFL individual is the boycott statement from Lions owner David Braley and the Mississauga comment from Rick LeLacheur. The plan not being approved by the NFL? Stated by the media with no attribution (it is a simple possibility). The federal government will pass legislation? Reported by Brunt himself in his Issues at Stake summary, talked about on sports radio, but never quoted out of a CFL governors mouth. Move the Argos to Mississauga? Stated by Edmonton Eskimos president and CEO Rick LeLacheur in an unprepared statement when surrounded by reporters and asked about the breaking story of Bills games coming to Toronto, it can hardly be viewed as an official statement of the league’s stance or plans. It is not ridiculous for the CFL to believe they could have a CFL sized stadium built in a London or Mississauga if other businesspersons believe they can build a $1 billion NFL stadium in Toronto with no public money. At this stage all options are on the table, just like Toronto interests leave all options on the table for obtaining an NFL franchise. As for the CFL not needing a Toronto franchise to survive, it may be harsh to state, but the remainder of the CFL will not immediately collapse if a Toronto franchise finds it impossible to survive at Rogers Centre, BMO field, in Mississauga or anywhere else, and that is important for CFL supporters across the nation to know.

The fact is this story broke fast and the CFL and the member clubs were unprepared. Their comments to the media were not heads-in-the sand dismissing the issue, but statements to their fans that they plan on being in Edmonton, B.C. and elsewhere in the country. Perhaps there should have been no comments except an official statement from the league office, however, that would appear much more fearful of the developments. As an emotional issue, it is expected that long time CFL supporters, with years of sweat, blood and money in the league like David Braley, will lash out at who appears to be a catalyst in the situation, Rogers Media, despite they being a league sponsor. The same way Ralph Wilson curtly barked to reporters “Worried about what?” when the suggestion CFL owners were concerned by his plan was made, an emotional response shows their dedication and concern to the Canadian brand of football as Wilson’s shows his dedication to his club.

The End, or Just the Beginning?

Is the news in the fall of 2007 the end of 30 years of waiting for the NFL to come to Canada and finish off the CFL for good, or the beginning of something else? I believe the latest news bodes well for the CFL, and unlike the media, I do not believe every announcement with “Toronto” and “NFL” in them makes them one step closer to acquiring an NFL franchise.

• The Buffalo Bills’ plan for games in Toronto actually works in Toronto’s favour in keeping an NFL franchise from relocating to Toronto. Seen by the media as a change in the NFL policy to avoid conflict with the Grey Cup in Toronto this year, it actually, in my eyes, caught the NFL office off-guard as well. This was a proposal from the Bills owner, outside of the control of the NFL, which is why there was no prior notification to the CFL. Roger Goodell may have different internationalization ideas than his predecessor Paul Tagliabue, but it is unlikely he is willing to torpedo the Canadian Football League. Any venture of the NFL into Canada must be done properly as to not alienate the Canadian public, which has a growing disapproval of American dominance, especially in the areas of culture.
• If Wilson lives until 2012 it is likely another lease agreement, perhaps for another 10 years, will be signed for Ralph Wilson Stadium, keeping the team in Buffalo for that period, hamstring potential buyers. Five to 15 years from now it is also hard to predict the economic situation and whether the Bills will be attractive to local buyers, for you can never underestimate what governments will do to prevent teams from leaving.
• The NFL’s statement regarding the Bills plans places southern Ontario in the Bills market area. This eliminates Toronto interests from acquiring another franchise and moving it to Toronto, part of the Bills territory. I think that effectively eliminates the talk of Jacksonville, New Orleans or Minnesota relocating to southern Ontario or Toronto acquiring an expansion team.
• These plans for eight games over five years for the Bills at Rogers Centre eliminates the possibility of Toronto getting one of the other international NFL games over the next five years. If the NFL does award games to Canada, they are more likely to go to Edmonton or Vancouver, who have already been quietly bidding on the prospect, or even Montreal, who may also decide to bid for a game at Olympic Stadium. These centres see a single NFL game as another revenue source, a one time experience for their fans to sell out the stadium, but not hurt their CFL attendance. This is similar to clubs hosting Grey Cups, concerts and other promotions as auxiliary sources of income.
• The state of the Toronto Argonauts has not been this strong in years. An assumption is made that all of their fans would immediately flock to an NFL ticket. This cannot be made. First, a vast majority of their patrons are CFL fans, and go to the game because they like the CFL‘s style of play. Secondly, the economics of them switching to NFL tickets, even dropping Argo season tickets for single Bills game tickets in the next few years, may be out of their possibility. Hamilton’s state is much the same. While the NFL’s appearance in Canada’s affect on attendance may be negligible at first, the concern will be long term, as the visibility factor becomes the issue.
• Of greater concern to CFL franchises in southern Ontario, though more for the Argos, is corporate support. This comes in advertising and sponsorship, and affecting the CFL as a whole, television sponsorship. If these items shrink due to money heading to an NFL franchise, eventually visibility will suffer, in the local media and television, which will lead to declining attendance. As long as television numbers continue to be strong there is no reason to believe the television contract would not be worthy to broadcasters and sponsors. This is the major issue facing the CFL, even being a gate driven league. If sponsorship and television can continue to grow, these CFL franchises can survive and coexist with the NFL.
• Listening to powerful voices in the NFL owners circle like Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen it seems apparent that there will be a strong voice in NFL circles for supporting the CFL, and forming a partnership with the CFL so they can reap the benefits of NFL activity in Canada.
• If these reports do not scare off potential investors in a ninth franchise for Ottawa, the CFL will be in a strong position to continue its growth in attendance and television ratings, with stadium expansion scheduled for Montreal, a new stadium and private ownership in Winnipeg and the potential revitalization of the stadium and franchise in Ottawa.
• I have stated that I do not believe Toronto will support an NFL team in the long term. This feeling comes from observing history. The Toronto Blue Jays were a hot ticket, from their expansion, to their first years of contention, to their World Series Championships. Since, attendance has dropped off, and though there have been recent gains with the promise of a team challenging for a pennant, the owners are finding how hard it is to make that challenge, even with increases to team salaries to buy and keep free agents. The high dollar and media ownership has helped keep team losses covered by ancillary benefits. The owners and executives have now even lost interest, and now lust for an NFL team. Governments change, economies change and baby boomers die. When they do, will private owners be ready to be in Buffalo’s position with a shrunken corporate and media market and fans unable to afford $500 tickets? What becomes of the $1 billion stadium then? In Montreal, the arrival of Olympic Stadium in 1976 and sold out crowds led to the belief that once the ownership mismanaged the team and it folded, the NFL would come to town. Never materializing, Quebec is now again a CFL support hotbed, and the NFL is rarely mentioned, while the Big O hosts a couple games a year.

The process will continue to play out, over years and not months, to the chagrin of the media defined Torontonian dying to spend $30,000 on a seat license and $500 per game ticket. As long as CFL fans do not abandon their league in despair or anticipation of what the media report as the end of the league, then the CFL will be around for the NFL’s arrival if the NFL arrives and after.

So did you hear the news? Even the CFL wants to bring an NFL franchise to Toronto. That seals it. There is nothing standing in our way now.

Yes, it appears there was some discussion of this internally, initiated by the Argo ownership, but is was real preliminary, thinking-out-loud talk. The fact is anyone with these ambitions are still hampered by the lack of a franchise being available and what the cost will be. The NFL is not expanding to Canada (or anywhere right now for that matter) and no teams have requested to relocate. To acquire a franchise, one has to come up for sale. Then you must navigate the local governments trying to sweeten the pot for local owners, then outbid all bidders wanting to keep the team in place or relocate the franchise.

But it is only a matter of time, right? I mean Ralph Wilson is on his deathbed.

Last time I saw Ralph Wilson, he looked very well. People with billions of dollars tend to get very good health care. Wilson is only 89; I’m sure you have relatives that have lived longer.

OK, but there are other franchises. Won’t one of them be available soon?

What is your definition of soon? Can the NFL let the New Orleans Saints leave town without appearing to be kicking a city when it is down? Maybe in five years. Maybe New Orleans owner Tom Benson will be able to arrange for new stadium funding to make up for the mess after Hurricane Katrina. The Jacksonville Jaguars? There is not enough buzz to believe they are close to being for sale or requesting relocation. The Minnesota Vikings? I think it is more than a long shot that a franchise as storied as the Vikings would relocate or come up for sale to be moved. Remember when the Minnesota Twins were contracted? Now a new ballpark is being built in Minneapolis, partially funded by taxpayers when the billionaire Twins owner is one of the richest owners in baseball.

Well, it will happen eventually. We know Ralph Wilson’s estate will be selling the Buffalo Bills. Then I will be watching the NFL at Rogers Centre.

So in 5 or 10 years the Bills will be auctioned. Let’s say a Toronto group is successful in acquiring the franchise. They will then have to put the NFL on notice of their desire to move the team. That will likely require another year in Buffalo. Perhaps a few more years if they decide to play in the larger stadium rather than lose 20,000 seats by moving to Rogers Centre until a new stadium needs to be built. You do realize a new stadium is required?

Yes, but they have a plan for that. I’m sure it will be awesome. I can’t wait for the Super Bowl to come to TO!

Sure, the plan being to finance the building of a new stadium with seat licenses and naming rights. The stadium will have to be covered, right? Especially if you want Toronto to host the Super Bowl. Even if that isn’t a requirement, Toronto fans won’t sit outside in November let alone December and January so covered is a must. So you are looking at $1 billion if recent stadiums in New York and Dallas are any indication. You better build it right the first time, otherwise you will be asked to pay seat licenses again in 10 years for the next state-of-the-art stadium. So that probably puts the seat licenses out of your price range, even if they only seat license half of the stadium cost and debenture what was left after naming rights. Taking on any debt is not likely since the stadium has no revenue streams except football. There will likely be the odd concert, but those events are a break even prospect to cover operating costs during the off season.

But the Canadian dollar is strong. Now is the time to buy a team and build a stadium when $2 billion = $2 billion.

Sure. When bringing the NFL to Toronto was first raised 30 years ago the dollar was above par and now it is again. But the 30 years in between it wasn’t. So any franchise better be prepared to go through years of a 60 cent Canadian dollar, and perhaps not even par by the time they get a team. Then 4-5 years to get a stadium constructed and with the way construction costs overruns go, the final stadium price could run $1.5 billion or more. No one knows. It could be enough for everyone to forget Montreal’s Olympic Stadium.

I’m sure that there can be some help from the three levels of government if money is needed to complete it.

I would not count on that. I would expect seat licenses to increase as the Mayor, Premier and Prime Minister have all nixed the idea of public money helping private billionaires and their sport teams. No government will stop private citizens from pursuing these opportunities, but no public money will go to help them. That will not change with any changes in government either.

Why are you so against this idea? We have MLB and the NBA and you were not opposed to that. Toronto is an international city and we deserve to have an NFL team.

The difference is there were no professional baseball and basketball leagues operating in Canada that the entry of MLB and the NBA in Canada affected. I believe that making a hostile franchise move of an NFL team into Canada may not be successful in the long term. The NFL has a strong record of supporting and not competing with the CFL, so it may not like coming to Canada under someone else’s terms. There is no guarantee American owners will grant a Canadian franchise the same share of television money or other revenue sharing if they are seen as rogue owners who are hurting the leagues revenue generation ability. If a Toronto franchise is financially crippled this way, the owners may end up having enough during a period of a low dollar and depressed economy and move or sell the team. If by this time the unique and culturally significant CFL was irrecoverably affected, this move by private citizens would have irreparably harmed Canada. I am not really against it as being a realist about the constant hype built on speculation, perhaps years before any of this comes to fruition.

You are making a lot of assumptions and conjecture about what might happen.

So are you. Your assumptions are just that Toronto bidders will be the only bidders, the NFL will be happy with the purchase, someone will pay for it, it will happen quickly and you will be celebrating a Super Bowl win by the Toronto Atoms on home field in the next decade.

The Toronto Atoms? No way. I think we should name them the Toronto Bills, or maybe the Ontario Bills… or the Canada Bills!

Great. You do realize what the Bills record in Super Bowls is?

The story is based mainly on the premise that discussions were had within the CFL about being involved in an NFL move to Canada instead of watching from the sidelines as other parties with no interests but their own obtain a franchise. Besides quoting the anonymous source that this is “the single biggest issue the CFL is facing,” very little information as to the CFL plan is revealed or speculated on, such as how CFL owners (three, soon to be two franchises are community owned) would propose to meet the NFL ownership restrictions and franchise cost. The information provided on the issues in bringing an NFL franchise to Toronto is at best based on little fact and much speculation and at worst wishful thinking.

With this latest rise of Toronto NFL franchise speculation there is at least clarity on the fact that Rogers Centre does not meet the minimum seating requirements of the NFL and a new stadium would have to be built in Toronto to house an NFL team. The idea that seat licenses could fund stadium construction is again floated since any public funding for a stadium is very unlikely. No reporter cares to put the numbers required to accomplish such funding, however. Looking at recent new NFL stadium projects I expect a 70,000 seat stadium to cost from $700 million to $1 billion. This would place seat licenses ranging from anywhere from $7,500 to $15,000 per seat on average. Perhaps there is demand in Toronto for ticket prices to be inflated, but is there enough demand to sell seat licenses for every seat? If you say, yes, the corporate community is starving for this and will shell out those costs and more, then you end up with a stadium full of corporate seats. Maybe that is fine in Toronto, and Torontonians will be happy to have a franchise whose seat licenses and ticket prices are only in the reach of the corporate wealthy.

Later, the spin started with claims the report is speculation and claims from two CFL governors that it was a “crazy concept” just being thrown around. Paul Godfrey took the story as an opportunity to spin it in his Rogers-Tanenbaum group’s favour, stating they are willing to work with the CFL to bring the NFL to Toronto and commit to doing everything in their power to “ensure that the CFL is stronger and healthier.”

It is hard to figure out what side the CFL party who created the story is on. They could either be for or against the idea, and leaking it helped sabatage it, or just someone who wanted to make a name for themselves with some juicy information. It is possible the CFL wanted it leaked to measure public support for the idea, however I see this as unlikely since there are so few details how this could be possible with the CFL owner’s financial strength, so why leak to gauge support when you cannot afford the $1 billion franchise cost. The spin from the CFL also makes it seem like they did not want this to get out.

If I can speculate for a moment, I would wonder if this idea is related to the Ottawa ownership hopefuls. They may have inquired what protection they would have if the NFL came to Toronto and killed the CFL after they ponied up a $5 to $10 million franchise fee. The Argo owners, developers along with the Ottawa franchise candidates with fairly deep pockets, may have been brainstorming on how they can protect themselves. Certainly one way would be for the these owners to band together to acquire an NFL franchise. Toronto owners Cynamon and Sokolowski, Hamilton owner Bob Young, B.C. owner David Braley, and Montreal owner Robert Wetenhall are certainly candidates to contribute to an ownership group with incoming Winnipeg owner David Asper and the potential Ottawa group also appear to have the means. Who could commit what will likely be around $300 million to become a 30% stakeholder is unknown to me. However, these candidates plus a few others in the Canadian business community would have the resources for an NFL franchise purchase price if someone could become the 30% stakeholder. It doesn’t appear any business person would consider this a bad investment either and hesitate to buy in like they might with a CFL franchise if they had the means. It begs the question, though, is this a private enterprise outside of their CFL interests or a holding of the NFL franchise for the CFL and all member clubs to benefit equally? Likely not.

This is important because as I understand it, community owned franchises in Edmonton and Saskatchewan would not be able to hold an ownership stake in an NFL team (and at least Saskatchewan’s financial situation would not allow them to contribute much). In addition, the group that controls the Calgary Stampeders may not have the resources to make meaningful contributions to an NFL ownership group. So it appears that a Canadian NFL franchise would not be able to fund the CFL directly, but only the owners who are able to contribute. Besides having control of the franchise so it does not squash your team by requiring combined season ticket purchases or other tie-ins, it does nothing to help the CFL from being overshadowed. Even though a Toronto CFL franchise may survive on increased ticket sales, if people in the seats is down, what does that do to the league? What about Hamilton? Do you tie NFL season tickets to Tiger-Cat tickets as well? What of television viewers? The two leagues season’s still overlap and a CFL absent or overshadowed on television will lead to league-wide attendance reductions, not just in southern Ontario. I think the real threat to CFL franchises comes not from the loss of fans, but sponsor and television revenue as the new kid on the block gets all the attention.

I agree with Stephen Brunt that this appears to be a way for Toronto’s CFL guardians to protect what they have built with the Argos, but I do not feel there are enough facts showing this is possible to believe it is a serious possibility that is being pursued. Brunt seems to believe the CFL would be the owner, but that is impossible based on an NFL corporate ownership ban and private/public CFL franchise owner disparities unless the NFL changed its constitution. I do not think any individual or small group of CFL owners have the resources to buy a franchise themselves and run it in trust for the league, nor would they be willing to turn their capital over to work for the CFL. Also, with the league as an owner (sayed shared evenly by all franchises), CFL expansion becomes much more complicated. Does a prospective franchisee need to buy in to the NFL franchise with entry into the CFL? Does that mean franchise fees jump to $100 million or more? Certainly owning an NFL franchise would help the CFL attract qualified owners who may want to build stadiums and put CFL franchises in cities if they received a share of the NFL team. Fees of $100 million though might just restrict the number of Canadians capable of doing so. While a CFL run franchise does help the NFL if they want to have a presence in Canada, it ignores the current rules for franchise ownership. For these reasons I do not believe the CFL is to be the holder of the NFL franchise.

I was interested in the report for the fact that the CFL is taking a lead with this issue and not sitting passively waiting for the move to happen one day. However, the more information that is reported about Toronto’s NFL aspirations, the more questions without answers that appear. Where do you stand with this issue? Am I off base believing there is way too much hype out of Toronto and reporters and fans put the blinders on to ignore all the obstacles facing them?

Background information on Mr. Cohon is limited, but it appears he brings support for Canadian football, if not a passion, a desire to build league support among young people and the knowledge to do so.

Cohon appears to be a good selection for the position, considering getting quality sports leaders to commit to the CFL is becoming more difficult. He also appears to be in a better position that his predecessors with a five-year contract and no long list of issues which are overdue to be addressed. In fact, Mr. Cohon could focus much of his initialization period on getting familiar with the league and starting the branding and growth process.

Compared to previous commissioners, this is what Marc Cohen does not have to worry about on his first day on the job (April 17):

• No franchises in need of an owner.
• No television deal to be negotiated, with owner demands for large increases in fees (new five-year deal starting in 2008 already signed).
• No lack of salary cap (new SMS system implemented for 2007).
• No bare cupboard for league sponsors.
• No expansion to Halifax with the Commonwealth Games bid there withdrawn.

Some issues besides growing revenue by expanding the fan base that will be on the commissioners plate during his term are:

• Continued partnership with the NFL and develop one with the AFL.
• Drug testing policy negotiations with CFLPA.
• The quality of the game and rule changes.
• Expansion to Ottawa (though the current expansion committee may handle this exclusively).

Search for CFL Commissioner Continues

The search for a CFL commissioner has been narrowed to three or four candidates with an appointment expected by the end of March. Of interest is the revelation that one of the finalists is an American. I hope that the CFL will not go the route of the NHL with an American executive talking the helm for the sake of their US business contacts. The CFL has no need for someone to break into the US market; it is not going to happen. Instead, a candidate with a strong understanding of Canada and the uniqueness of Canadian football is needed. The desire to make this hire a long-term position also translates to not taking chances with an unconventional hire.

Window Opened on Transparency

After statements from the CFL director of salary expenditures earlier in the week claimed the Salary Management System would not be transparent to the public the CFL backtracked, with COO Michael Copeland stating public disclosure has not been determined yet. Gene Dunn, acting commissioner, said that the transparency of the system will be decided by the incoming commissioner. While publishing player salaries was raised, the league would need to come to an agreement with the CFLPA since the current labour agreement does not allow the league to publish these numbers, with the CFLPA privately sharing them with agents and players.

With the doubts raised about adherence to the cap over the lack of transparency, more claims came from those responsible that the cap will be in affect.

Rule Changes Proposed

Recommendations for rule changes from the CFL Congress will be drawn up and brought to the board of governors in April. Two major changes from last year are getting serious support for reversal in 2007. The first to revert kick blocking rules to those in place in 2005. The other change will be to switch back to a football with standard painted stripes rather than sewn in painted sections for stripes.

The CFL is supposed to have a competitive committee to look at and recommend rules changes, but there was no mention of the committee in this week’s stories. It appears the general managers are making the recommendations here and they are sticking with reverting those two changes last year to correct the scoring drought that occurred last year with both special teams and offensive touchdowns way down.

2007 Schedule Released

With team approval at the CFL Congress received, the CFL released the 2007 schedule today. A nice compromise to getting teams a bye week but eliminating the silly schedule juggling it has caused in the past (20 week seasons, long breaks with no games followed by 3 games in 12 days, and season ending byes). Instead of shutting the league down for a week, two division rivalry weeks in August, with the other division taking the bye, were drawn up. This is a fair compromise. While it does reduce the CFL‘s exposure at the end of the summer with only four games on TV over two weeks, it avoids many of the other scheduling issues that come with trying to insert byes into the schedule. I do not believe byes improve the play on the field, and should not be necessary since rosters are expanded more than 15-20 years ago when small rosters and no byes were in affect, but they seem to be here to stay.

The schedule is not perfect however. Continuing a tradition best left to die, the CFL once again starts the season with a rematch of last year’s Grey Cup. In an effort to shoehorn B.C. and Toronto into the schedule on the opening day, they have a June 28 opening day game in Toronto starting at 6:30 PM local time on a Thursday night. An early start on a regular weeknight will likely hurt the Argos crowd, while the B.C. TV audience will be at work and on the commute for most or all of the game. The CFL needs to learn that more interest can be built on the rematch if it occurs later in the season and there is no need to force the schedule in such a fashion.

Otherwise it is a very traditional CFL schedule with Labour Day weekend classic matches, the Hall of Fame game in Hamilton, and Thanksgiving match ups.

Update: More background on this year’s schedule.

Other Notes

• Talks with the Palmer group continue regarding returning a team to Ottawa for 2008.
• An agreement with the Arena Football League regarding respecting player contracts is close to being announced.
• The television schedule is expected to be announced in the next two weeks.
• CFL free agency starts tonight at midnight Eastern time.

Asper’s proposal calls for a $40 million one-third investment in a new stadium with the other two thirds coming from the provincial and federal governments. Asper also proposed contributing an additional $25 million to develop commercial space around the stadium. In exchange, Asper would assume control of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, including their control of acres of prime retail land ready for development.

The Blue Bomber board of directors warmly welcomed Asper’s proposal, but they were not ready to sign away the club just yet. They are calling for other development proposals, specifically partnerships that allow the club to stay in public hands. The football club has a plan for development to increase their revenue streams and an agreement with the city giving them control of prime land at the current stadium site. Unfortunately, they do not have the capital strength behind them to orchestrate a new stadium and commercial development themselves. This leaves them to rely on private partnerships or takeover deals. Partnerships are much harder to come by as they are very restricted by the asset they have (the land) that a developer wants and what they want (a new stadium) that has no value except to the community and football club. In short, why would a developer invest their cash to develop a costly stadium and retail space, if they are not to get control of the revenue streams from all development? It appears to me that the only partnership option for the Bombers would be turn over development to a third party who would control the property and the Bombers pay to lease the stadium. This does not fit with the Bomber plans to grow and expand their non-football revenue streams.

In an effort to attract other proposals, a feasibility study on a new stadium conducted on behalf of the Blue Bombers and others was released this week. This study concludes that a new stadium would provide the revenue streams to offset the operating costs of the stadium. There are some differences between the Asper stadium plan and the Bomber stadium feasibility study. Asper’s stadium would cost around $120 million for 40,000 permanent seats while the Bombers’ plan estimates the cost to be around $200 million for 30,000 seats, which would be expandable to 45,000 for events such as the Grey Cup. The Bomber proposal includes an attached hotel and indoor water park along with internal exhibition space, meeting space and a restaurant. The Asper proposal includes retail and restaurant space. Both proposals call for most seats to be covered, providing partial protection from the elements. Asper wishes to build near the current stadium while the Bombers’ study has 12 proposed locations. If action were taken immediately, Asper would start construction in 2007 and divide it into two phases, with the stadium ready for the 2008 football season. The Bomber study calls for the stadium to be ready in 2009.

While local politicians have supported the idea of a new stadium plan, no one is ready to commit money just yet. At least one reporter feels the Asper deal should be rejected. A lack of cash contributed to the project and options surround the club ownership are sited as reasons the proposal is lopsided in Asper’s favour.

When dealing with such a complex situation it is very hard to determine what is fair. Asper’s bid appears generous, effectively shelling out $65 million for a team worth at most $15 million. Looking at the details of the proposal reveals additional benefits to Asper. He is asking the city of Winnipeg to donate the land to him as part of the deal, the land currently controlled by the Bombers in a lease with the city. He is asking for two thirds of a new stadium to be funded by federal and provincial levels of government. That new stadium and commercial development will be in private control with all revenue staying private. It would be a very hard decision for governments to contribute to a stadium project when it was to reside in private hands right from the start, no matter how soon the economic payback in taxes could be achieved. The Asper proposal does provide for a much more economical stadium with more seating. Asper has also stated he is willing to donate the existing turf to the University of Manitoba, and help the U of M build a new stadium if necessary. Asper’s statement that

… if I build the stadium and then I go broke, they can’t lose. They can resurrect the team as a community-owned entity again and they’ll be able to do it with a brand new stadium.

is comforting, worrying and misleading all at the same time. It is meant to comfort the board of directors about the future of the Bombers under private ownership, that the community can gain control if it does not work out. It is worrying to the public who would wonder why Asper would think he could go broke on this deal. It certainly is tilted in his favour with public money and revenue streams and his net worth. It is misleading to the public as well as Asper knows he will not part with a stadium and football club for nothing, even if he is in financial difficulty. It is easy for institutions to go from public to private, but much harder to go from private to public.

Besides their feasibility study, the Blue Bombers do not have anything concrete in terms of options. Even their study is filled with estimates and options and does not provide answers to questions like location and stadium configuration like Asper provides. With no other bidders stepping forward, the Bombers will be faced with either accepting Asper’s bid or waiting, perhaps years, to find suitable development partners to work with them and the three levels of governments to get a destination complex built. While stadium seat licenses have been proposed to raise capital to allow the Bombers to start a project in cooperation with the provincial and federal governments, at the proposed $500 a license, only $10 million is raised with 20,000 licenses. That is only a quarter of what the Bombers need to get serious interest on the project. Therefore, the choice the Bombers have is whether they cut the Gordian knot in one bold stroke and accept Asper’s takeover or continue to look for an end in order to unravel the knot some other way.

In the initial official engineering report on the cause of the deflation, human error, weather conditions and undetected fabric damage to the roof panel were listed as causes. When the roof was detected as slightly inverted and speaker columns were hanging low, a worker turned on one additional fan to correct the problem. A second worker, in an apparent miscommunication, started eight other fans, causing an over pressurization, which along with the weakened panel and wind conditions, caused the tear in the roof. The roof was then deflated. A change to air-control systems is recommended to prevent too many fans causing over-pressurization and is being implemented immediately.

B.C. Place Stadium has long been a proud part of Vancouver’s skyline, but this accident has re-opened the debate over the future of the stadium. There have been suggestions that the stadium be retired after the 2010 Winter Olympics slated for Vancouver. Developers have long had their eyes on the stadium property, worth potentially in the hundreds of millions of dollars for condominium development. The stadium on the other hand is worth perhaps only $50-75 million as a stadium. Those for the redevelopment of the stadium site advocate a new open-air stadium for Vancouver, and some purists point to the lack rain on B.C. Lion game days since the stadium was built as a need to return to an open-air stadium.

The stadium is around until 2010′s Olympics and due to small annual operating losses, the B.C. government may consider selling the stadium to private interests. David Braley, owner of the B.C. Lions, is one who is interested in purchasing the stadium and is in negotiations. The B.C. Pavilion Corp., current managers of the stadium, may not be willing to transfer management to private enterprise until after the 2010 Olympics, and gaining control before the Olympics would likely be a requirement of any private investor. The B.C. Lions only contribute at most 12 events a year to the stadiums 200+ dates a year, with the remaining being mainly trade shows that only the floor is used for and concerts. Without another major sports tenant to attract large crowds, it is very unlikely any money will be put into the stadium publicly or privately to radically change it with a retractable roof or other such suggestions from the public. A MLB team for Vancouver is very unlikely, along with the Seattle Mariners or Toronto Blue Jays playing any games at B.C. Place. Even so, the booming B.C. economy will likely lead to high public approval of a publicly funded stadium after 2010. Currently, commenters throw around their estimates on stadium upgrades or new construction in the hundreds of millions as cheap. There is no fathomable understanding of the amount of money they are proposing. It is all just about millions in the age of billion dollar government budgets.

If B.C. Place is slated for destruction and a new stadium built, the B.C. Lions will be in a tough position. A new stadium likely means either needing to put money towards the construction or pay increased lease costs, possibly for a stadium that is larger than what they need or want.

CFL Gains

A first glance at the deal shows a substantial gain in rights fees for the CFL over the last five-year deal. However, that is not the only way to judge a contract. There are other reasons the league signed with TSN during the exclusive rights negotiation period.

• The deal is believed to be worth $75-80 million over the five-year term, or $15-$16 million per year. This is reportedly an increase of $30-$35 million from the previous five-year contract, or a 67% increase.
• A solid TV contract with a substantial increase from the previous makes the league and franchises more attractive to potential advertisers and investors.
• The CFL gets a strong, sports-orientated partner for all their broadcasts and new media offerings (Internet, mobile and video-on-demand). This consistency will help improve their brand and image.
• The CFL is guaranteed all of their games will be broadcast, which happened in 2006 for the first time since 1989. TSN plans on adopting another standard night for football, and scheduling will likely be much more flexible with TSN compared to the CBC.

CFL Concessions

Without question, the CFL did not pull the wool over the eyes of TSN. The league gave up additional rights and properties in this new deal.

• The CFL negotiated only with TSN as the previous rights holder during the exclusive rights negotiation period. Without taking it to the open market, the league does not know what other players would have paid. Unconfirmed sources suggested a CBC-Global bid would have come in at $20 million a year.
• By signing an exclusive deal with TSN, the Grey Cup will not be shown on CBC for the first time since 1952. This breaking of tradition is more a sentimental issue for CBC and tradition supporters.
• The pay cable TSN network reaches approximately 8.8 million Canadian households, where the free over-the-air broadcaster CBC reaches approximately 13 million households. The CFL states they were more interested in the quality (sport fans) of households rather than the quantity.
• An exclusive deal with TSN could result in no other bidders being at the table at the next negotiations, taking away any leverage the CFL has to get market value for their TV rights. While the CBC may decide not to bid if their sports department does not exist in five years, continued strong CFL numbers are likely to raise the interest of other players, like Sportsnet or Global, enough that TSN will not be able to make a take it or leave it offer.
• Without wording in the contract to pay for rights on a number of games basis, or increase the yearly value with the addition of franchises, the annual yearly return to clubs will be reduced by expansion, causing franchise fees to be higher than the risk of starting a new franchise allows in order to soften the loss to other clubs, which will potentially inhibit expansion.
• There will be a change in blackout policy, calling for the blackout of an unknown number games across the whole league. Individual clubs will not be responsible for deciding to blackout or lift the blackout on games, the decision will be at a league level, which may mean it will be tied to a formula like percentage of tickets sold so many hours before game time.
• The league turned over new media rights after investing time with other partners to develop them the last few years. Locking up these rights in a five year deal eliminates any revenue growth potential from these burgeoning revenue streams.

Other Factors, Notes and Speculation

Other information about the agreement.

• The CBC has first rights to the Grey Cup if TSN decides to broadcast the game on conventional broadcast TV. TSN insists they intend to broadcast the Grey Cup on TSN only.
• The deal is for 77 CFL games (72 regular season, 4 playoff and the Grey Cup) per season with an eight team league. It is unknown if the rights fee increases with the addition of franchises, but it is speculated that it does not. If not, TSN will receive an additional nine games for the same fee if expansion takes place in Ottawa for the first year of the contract, 2008, as is the league’s goal. While it is not as likely a tenth team would be added before the end of the agreement, such an action would give TSN 95 games for the price of 77.
• The CBC CFL broadcast crew has been decimated the last few years with the loss of primary play-by-play man Chris Cuthbert (laid off due to NHL lockout) and host Brian Williams, who both ended up at TSN. Without replacing quality with quality, the CBC left themselves exposed with only the tradition on their side. The CFL instead went with TSN, which will give them the best crews to broadcast the CFL playoffs and Grey Cup.

Analysis

There are some parts of the new deal that raise an eyebrow, however the CFL fully accepts it took some risks in signing the deal, but they believe these risks will pay off for them in the future.

The major risks undertaken by the CFL are:

1. Moving to a cable-only broadcaster for all their games, including the showcases of the playoffs and Grey Cup, could backfire if viewer numbers drop and do not recover over the term of the agreement. Exposure of their game still trumps the contract value for the CFL. The CFL nor TSN expects this to happen.
2. Not waiting to involve other bidders, the CFL signed a deal when there was no competing offers which may have better reflected the value of the property. This shows the league was very interested in the TSN partnership, not just the money value, and did not see a benefit to a continued splitting of rights with holders who showed no interest in the game.
3. By eliminating CBC from football for five years, they may not be around to bid next time, effectively removing a bidder in a small Canadian market. The CFL again seems to be happy to sever their relationship with CBC due to the decline of the relationship that goes back a decade.

All of these risks, while they have potential to backfire, seem manageable. The CFL looks to step up their presence, image and brand with this deal, and for a niche player such as their league is, this type of deal makes sense.

Questions

There still are unanswered questions about this new television deal. The facts surrounding these details may never come out, but that does not stop me from wondering.

• Is there any language in the contract to increase the value with the addition of franchises, and therefore the number of games available for broadcast? If not, why not? With expansion to Ottawa on the burner right now and Halifax a serious candidate if they win the rights for the 2014 Commonwealth Games (decided in 2007, with a stadium potentially ready by 2010) plus the value of bringing in these additional areas of the country into the league, the broadcasters stand with everything to gain.
• Why was the CBC given first right of refusal to conventionally broadcast the Grey Cup if TSN decided to do so? If you want to make a new deal, why not sever all ties with the past? If TSN decided after the first year of the deal that due to declined viewership they wanted to move the game to conventional TV, CBC could snap it up and throw together a poor quality broadcast. It seems a TSN crew broadcast on CTV would make the most sense, but CBC potentially stands in the way of that.

Do you have an insight on the deal? Did I miss something? Leave a comment here.

References

‘End of an Era’: CBC Loses Rights To CFL – Dec. 21, 2006 Ottawa Citizen

TSN, RDS Go Solo In 2008 – Dec. 21, 2006 National Post

Grey Cup moves to TSN in new deal – Dec. 20, 2006 globesports.com

CBC is out, TSN is in – Dec. 21, 2006 Ottawa Sun

CBC out as CFL opts for TSN – Dec. 21, 2006 Toronto Star

94th Grey Cup

CBC has sold all the commercial time available for the Grey Cup and will have unprecedented global coverage of Sunday’s game. With one game, the CFL/CBC cannot screw it up and schedule games three hours apart like the Semi-Finals and Finals. The CBC saying it is a CFL decision shows what kind of partnership they have. As a broadcaster, should they not be working with the CFL with explanations that this will provide more and proper coverage? If the CFL was offered eight hours of coverage by scheduling an hour between games would they turn it down?

Strong audience numbers are expected and the production values will be up to par with 32 cameras and a High Definition broadcast. The CableCam returns for the second year and promises a better look at the game from a higher vantage point in Canad Inns Stadium.

The week started slow with the arrival of the teams Tuesday. The coaches’ press conference brought little substance. Very disappointed that there has been very little coverage of the match ups besides the old fallback of Cavillo has to prove he can win big game. Winnipeg has yet to welcome the Grey Cup festivities, leaving some Argo fans to try to liven things up. Perhaps the CFL needs to go to smaller markets less frequently, or does hosting the first make any other just another Grey Cup?

With a partnership with web start-up geosmack, the CFL offers a lame 3D virtual tour of Canad Inns Stadium in Winnipeg prior to the Grey Cup. The geosmack EarthSkin software requires the Google Earth software. I am sure geosmack EarthSkins have many uses, but I wonder what anyone would get out of viewing a 3D model of the stadium.

Get a position-by-position break down of the Grey Cup finalists before you make your trades in the FSN Future Shop Pick 10 Playoff Edition contest.

The Grey Cup week brings with it lots of league talk and speculation, and the focus this year has been on Danny Barrett rumours and opinions, Eric Tillman, and racism and Roy Shivers. Saskatchewan is not even in the game, can you believe it?

Interesting fact: Montreal kicker Damon Duval married Alouette President Larry Smith’s daughter this spring.

State of the League Address

As expected, very little can be learned from the annual commissioner State of the League address by Tom Wright. Despite the still growing popularity of the game (increased attendance, increased Alouette numbers on RDS, increased sponsorships, outdrawing TV competition) the private owners seem bent on destroying the league in efforts to get a big windfall. Rumours that David Cynamon and Howard Sokolowski are looking to sell the Argos after two and a half years of ownership may be directly related to the direction other owners have taken the league in voting out Wright, increasing a salary cap, blocking expansion, talking about US expansion and making a protection for market entry deal with the NFL.

Interestingly there was mention of a league wide code of conduct which could be approved tomorrow. No details as to what this means, it may have been questioned in the media Q & A session, but no additional info was available at the time of this post.

Update: Apparently this is just the rule preventing CFL clubs from signing NFL players under contract or suspension. Hardly news.

Ten Questions Facing the CFL

Stephen Brunt and David Naylor propose ten fundamental questions the CFL must address in determining the future of the league. It is likely the league is not even listening and if they cannot even acknowledge these questions then the future does not look bright. The most disturbing is question 10. “Is the threat of the National Football League real?” The fact that surprises and disturbs me is that there are CFL owners willing to make a deal with the NFL to save the league. Such a deal would obviously turn the CFL into a farm league. This has all kinds of ramifications, from whether a farm system can use very different rules to whether there will be any interest in such a CFL outside of Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto, assuming Toronto is interested with an NFL franchise. The NFL will not provide prop-up money without getting something in return, and if the franchises lose support, how long will the NFL be willing to write the CFL‘s ticket? The owners making such a move for protection seems to predict an NFL move to Canada since there would be no resistance.

With no league resistance challenging such a move, there would be no government intervention on anti-competitive behaviour, especially with the American-in-Canadian clothes Stephen Harper in office. If this does come to pass, and my childhood CFL is destroyed and the NHL a shell of its former self, I will be like Taylor in the Planet of the Apes “You maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn you! God damn you all to hell!”

Memo to CFL: Kill Video Review

The calls are in for the CFL to abolish video replay reviews of plays, but will they listen? Overtime Central was opposed to the implementation from the start, but since it was likely the CFL would implement a system, we tried to influence the implementation (no luck there, but considering our readership that is not surprising). Still, the CFL implemented a flawed system that slowed down the game this season and led to un-reviewable calls being reviewed such as fumbles after the whistle had blown the play dead. The system must be severely scaled back for 2007 to one challenge per team per game. To prevent the abuse of retractions, they must not be allowed, or only allowed within a reasonable amount of time, such as 10 or 15 seconds. The set of challengeable plays must be more strictly defined as those that occur during the whistle. Challenging an unchallengeable play will cost the coach his challenge and timeout. Coaches will be required to know the rules or be penalized. To help accomplish this, the list of challengeable calls needs to be reduced and simplified. These things will improve the game, provide a challenge system for plays that the system was intended, and leave judgement calls such as whether a player’s knee was a half an inch above the turf before the ball came out to the officials.

CFL Notes

Not being officially implemented provides the first loophole for CFL salary cap. This is starting to look like how things were run in the early 80′s, with big spenders counting on a large TV payoff. When reality hits there may not be a CFL for us to watch. Some trust holders those franchise owners are.

Jim Popp got his CFL start as an assistant coach in Saskatchewan. Two seasons with Don Matthews (’93/’94) as Director of Player Personnel/Scout/Assistant Coach before he followed Matthews to Baltimore in 1995. Who remembers that?

The best commissioner of the CFL since G. Sydney Halter (yes, I am aware of Jake Gaudaur) and instead of a lifetime appointment they show Tom Wright the door. Yes, the CFL looks foolish replacing commissioners at the drop of a hat. Therefore, when you find someone that is the best you will ever find, you keep him. Yes, I am very bitter about this.

Shutting down CFL looks to be a possibility, if only for one week. At first, you think it is some dummy’s idea to provide an equal bye week to all teams, same time during the season with no long breaks or multiple games in a short span. They have actually thought it through though and are considering a skills competition week during the break. This is acceptable if they arrange for the skills competition with the Players Association and networks. If not, it takes the CFL off the radar for a week right prior to when it needs to carry momentum against its fall competition. The other option, a 20-week season with two bye weeks per team is worse however. In an even-team league, there is no need for byes. Sure, because of stadium schedule dates this year because of Ottawa folding it was necessary, but the CFL has never had bye weeks as an 8-team league. There is no proof bye weeks make the play any better, either during the season or in the playoffs. If there is no bye week for an All-Star Skills competition then an 18-week season with no byes and a late season start of around July 4th or 5th is necessary.

As predicted, promised and needed, the CFL implements a rule to honour NFL suspensions.

Tyrone Jones is in Winnipeg for the Grey Cup, dying of cancer. This has to be the worst news year for the CFL I can remember.

“Pinball” Clemons has confirmed he will coach the Argos in 2007. Keeping the Argo defence together and settling their quarterback controversy will be large off-season questions in a year when they host the Grey Cup.

Next Tuesday is decision day for area residents around Molson Stadium on McGill University campus in Montreal. If at least 191 residents sign a register of opposition to the proposed stadium upgrade, it will be forced to a referendum.

The growing number of nationalities represented by CFL reflects Canadian multi-culturism, especially the three large metropolitan areas. It is probably true that football is more attractive as a sport to immigrants compared to hockey due to the unique skills hockey requires that many Canadian kids pick up at a young age.

The Last Ricky Williams Notebook Entry

Will it be the last? Unless Ricky returns to the CFL, it probably is. Some called Ricky’s attitude to the end “nonchalant”. It appears Williams really enjoyed his stay and was a model teammate.

No Majority for NFL Team in Toronto

A survey conducted by the Toronto Star showed 50% of greater metropolitan Toronto area residents say they oppose to bringing an NFL franchise to Toronto. The survey also revealed 76% of residents have no interest in the NFL, the highest of any league in the survey (which the CFL appears to be excluded from), 50% against a franchise in the 18-34 age group, 42% against in men aged 18-34 and 40% against in men aged 18-34 who consider themselves NFL fans.

While it can be said a franchise could be successful with 60% of 18-34 male NFL fans in Toronto, the greater message in the survey is that the people of Toronto will not be ready to fund any public infrastructure to land an NFL team. People only have to look at the current San Francisco ’49ers situation, who have announced they are negotiating to move the club to a new stadium, perhaps in Santa Clara, California. Infrastructure costs for the City of San Francisco to incur with the building of a stadium at the current Candlestick location was expected to exceed the $600-800 million USD cost of the stadium. Los Angeles is proposing building a new stadium inside the walls of the Los Angeles Coliseum at a cost of $800 million USD. Dallas is constructing a new 75,000-seat retractable roof stadium in Arlington, Texas at a projected cost of $650 million USD, half of which is funded publicly by voter approved sales, hotel and car rental tax increases. These staggering figures should send any Torontonian running, for there will certainly be a call for an at least partially public funded stadium after a NFL franchise comes to Toronto. Anyone who believes a franchise could survive playing out of the SkyDome is not realistically looking at the other stadiums in the NFL, and the plans for new ones. The NFL likes (requires?) large, cash-sucking stadiums paid for with public money and Canada would be no different. Expecting seat licenses to pay for such a stadium seems a little steep for the Toronto market (can they sell 20,000 seats at $40,000 a license for an $800 million stadium). It is for certain Canadian investors could not afford a $1 billion dollar franchise cost and then finance a $1 billion stadium cost.

Suspiciously, the Toronto Argonaut stadium deal kyboshed last year after they agreed to stay at Rogers Centre may be related to a future Toronto NFL bid. Paul Godfrey, the point man for Toronto NFL interests, would know that a stadium being built for the Argos would hurt his chances of getting public money and approval to build a new stadium for a NFL franchise once one was landed. The Argo deal with the Rogers Centre was brokered by none other than Paul Godfrey, CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays, owned by Rogers Media, which also owns the Rogers Centre. The deal promised the Argos something better than third-class citizen treatment, and once the deal was signed that has turned out to be largely vapourware.